This Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) Strategic Intelligence Briefing covers the period from November 15th to November 28th, 2020 and discusses issues related to recent political, economic, socio-cultural, and/or environmental events that may have an effect on security throughout the United States or other global markets. The Strategic Intelligence Briefing is a bi-weekly, high level version of the type of intelligence reporting services that Brosnan offers as part of our overall security services.
Intelligence as a Service (IaaS) is just one of the fundamental offerings included in our comprehensive list of security products and services.
National COVID-19 Update
The following details indicate that the Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has put in place plans to distribute the vaccine on an accelerated pace and leveraged relationships and expertise from the private sector to address the pandemic.
a. The U.S. government (USG) has purchase agreements in place for 300 million doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine.
i. It has been determined that AZ’s phase 3 trial in the US has not had enough clinical data to evaluate efficacy. The data thus far has been in the UK and Brazil
b. CVS has announced that they will begin vaccinating nursing homes within 48 hours of FDA authorization of a vaccine.
c. OWS has distributed 120,000 course of Eli Lilly’s monoclonal antibody and 50,000 more courses will be shipped this week
d. 35,000 courses of Regeneron’s antibody began on November 24, with regular shipments planned thereafter.
e. While CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendations on who will receive priority for the vaccine will trigger reimbursement mechanisms among the USG and insurance carriers, OWS has determined that it will be up to local/state jurisdictions to decide who receives the vaccines. (Note: ACIP is the group that develops written recommendations for routine administration of vaccines to the pediatric and adult populations, along with vaccination schedules regarding appropriate timing, dosage, and contraindications of vaccines.)
f. OWS expects to have enough vaccine to vaccinate the most vulnerable by the end of December, seniors and first responders by the end of January, and anyone that wants one in Q2 of 2021.
g. Vaccine hesitancy among the public has decreased since companies have released their data and the election rhetoric has subsided.
h. The USG has leveraged expertise from Pfizer, Moderna, McKesson, UPS, FedEx, CVS, and Walgreens to devise and execute its distribution plans.
i. As of 20 November, each of the 64 jurisdictions nationally had received their initial vaccine allocations. Distribution here on out will occur weekly, with plans to establish a safety reserve.
Trump Will Not Go Quietly
According to officials in the White House, while the President has accepted the fact that he has lost the election, he has no intention of going quietly or taking a lower profile once he is out of office. It is expected that he will continue to exert influence and assume the role as the head of the Republican party. At the present time, while a select few in the party have attempted to position themselves to replace him, i.e. Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE), none have gained any traction. Furthermore, over the past four years the President has made allies in key positions in the party, to include head of the RNC Ronna McDaniel, as well as discussion of a more prominent role to be played by Donald Jr.
Expected Balance of Power Moving Forward
At the present time there are eight House seats that remain to be decided. Senior pollsters are quietly projecting that seven of these will likely go to the Republican party. While the Democrats would remain in control of the House, their majority would be winnowed down to a mere three seats. As for the two Senate seats contested in Georgia, one is believed to be securely in the hands of the Republicans, with the other likely so. Should the aforementioned bear out, Congress would remain divided, but in such a way so as to not only check President-elect Biden to a greater degree than it did President Trump, but also the Far Left wing of the Democratic party, to include AOC.
CIA Director Candidates
While former senior operations officer Darrell Blocker’s name has been floated as a potential candidate for Director of CIA, the two most likely candidates are Admiral William McRaven and Tom Donilon. Former Deputy Director of CIA Mike Morrell had been thought to be a leading candidate, however, it was learned that due to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence’s (SSCI) objection, he is no longer being considered.
a. McRaven: Admiral McRaven is also being considered for the role as Secretary of Defense by President-elect Biden. McRaven was Commander of Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC, 2011-2014), and was most recently the Chancellor of the University of Texas (2015-2018). With regard to the CIA, Admiral McRaven maintained a strong relationship with the Agency over his career, especially during his time at JSOC. One of his suggestions during that time was to formally integrate JSOC with the CIA’s Directorate of Operations to form a separate organization focused on driving operations. This idea was not pursued but illustrates his understanding of the issues and challenges at play.
b. Donilon: Tom Donilon served as the National Security Advisor to President Obama from 2010-2013. He currently works for BlackRock’s global think tank.
History had taught us that times of social and political uncertainty sometimes induce periods of instability and civil unrest. Unfortunately, we are in one of those periods; and while protestors may not show up on your doorstep, they could impact your supply chain or the ability for your employees to get to and from work. If your Business Continuity Plan does not account for civil unrest, you may want to spend some time evaluating the potential impacts and creating contingency plans.
All indicators show that it is not if, but when the next violent protest will erupt. A little planning and preparation go a long way. Click the link below to learn more about Brosnan's Strategic Response Team.
Thanks for reading!
Need some assistance? Let us know how we can help!