This Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) Strategic Intelligence Briefing covers the period from December 28th, 2020 to January, 11th, 2021 and discusses issues related to recent political, economic, socio-cultural, and/or environmental events that may have an effect on property, travel, commercial, logistical, medical, and retail security throughout the United States or other global markets.
The Strategic Intelligence Briefing is a bi-weekly, high level version of the type of intelligence reporting services that Brosnan offers as part of our overall security services. In addition to striving for operational excellence as one of the best security guard companies in the United States, we set ourselves apart from other security services companies by providing our clients with Intelligence as a Service (IaaS) products that are designed to arm them with the data they need to make informed security and business decisions throughout their organizations.
Trump’s Future “pre-protest”
Despite his tweets and statements, Trump was actually at ease and focused on the future and the reality that certification of the election results could not be changed prior to the January 6th, 2021 protest in Washington. His focus was, and continues to be, on cleaning out the party of those disloyal to him. As such, he is working to undermine the core of Republican Party that he believes was never with him, and who he believed has worked against him for the last four years. It is thought based upon Trump’s comments privately that he will spend the next 2-4 years active and engaged in trying to reshape the politics of the country in a way akin to the Tea Party; not form a new party but rather change the course of the Republicans.
Inauguration Security Concerns
Senior political and security officials have commented that the Inauguration of President-elect Biden will likely not be an open, public event. Concerns even before January 6th were that there was a significant likelihood of pro-Trump/Far-Right activists attempting to disrupt the event. With the fallout from the 06 January protests and subsequent statements by Far-Right groups on social media calling for follow on protests at the Inauguration, this is becoming more certain. There is concern in Washington DC, as well as in major metropolitan locations, for potential ongoing protests and violence by Far-Right groups, as well as Far-Left groups looking to provoke them. While there has been no specific intelligence, it is being monitored closely.
Biden Transition Process
Plans continue to move forward by President-elect Biden and his team for the transition. At present, the plan calls for one single staff at the White House to be shared by Biden and Vice-President elect Harris. As for Harris’ portfolio, her focus will be on the Senate given the 50-50 split, to ensure the President’s agenda and that of the Democratic party are advanced.
As for the appointment of Merrick Garland, he was chosen for two reasons. First, he is viewed by the political establishment in Washington DC as effectively non-partisan and a man of unquestioned integrity. Biden has a strong relationship with him dating back to the Obama Administration when Garland was considered for a Supreme Court seat, and he could once again be tapped for the nation’s highest court should a seat open up. Secondly, there is a strong desire within Biden’s administration to prosecute Trump after he leaves office. It is believed that Garland’s strong relationships with both Democrats and Republicans will allow for this to take place in as an apolitical manner as possible. At this point, Biden remains undecided about pursuing such a course as he does not want to further divide the country.
As for the other senior appointments made by Biden, it is generally accepted that he focused on choosing professionals that will focus on the process of government; individuals not intent on rocking the boat but rebuilding their departments/agencies and moving things forward. While Biden will likely change course on a number of issues important to him, i.e. Iran and the environment, his focus will initially be on the pandemic and changing the manner and method of governing. Throughout the government, agencies and departments have been tasked to assess the impact of a nationwide closure for up to three months; something Biden is apparently considering in an attempt to control the pandemic.
Qatar Boycott Ends
Gulf leaders signed a “solidarity and stability agreement” towards ending the diplomatic rift with Qatar at a Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Saudi Arabia on January 5th. Jared Kushner was present for the session, and while press reported that he played a key role in facilitating the agreement, insiders explained that he actually only attended the session.
While a hopeful step forward in ending this rift, there are certain realities in/around the agreement and players that bear watching. First and foremost, according to senior officials, nothing has effectively changed with regard to UAE’s position vis-à-vis Qatar. While certain procedural aspects of the agreement have been accepted, the UAE did not sign the agreement. Furthermore, in the UAE itself, the news of this event does not include the fact that the UAE is a part of it.
Second, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman stated privately that this agreement was actually done to pave the way toward good relations with U.S. President-elect Biden. It is known that Biden does not like the Saudi leadership, stemming back to the 9-11 attack. Furthermore, there is concern on the Saudi side that once Biden takes office, not only will relations between the U.S. and the Gulf States (notably KSA and the UAE) not be as strong, but also that the U.S. may open a case against Muhammad bin Salman and the government regarding the killing of Muhammad Khashoggi, who was a U.S. Green Card holder. This is currently being explored within the Department of Justice. As such, MBS was keen to address any outstanding issues that could be used by the U.S. to exacerbate potential issues, i.e. the Qatar Boycott.
For the Qataris, they view this agreement as a significant victory. They did not need to concede on any of the points of concern raised by the Gulf States, and they were able to show that they were able to not only survive such a boycott but thrive. They are looking forward to the Biden Administration taking power not only due to their on-again off-again relationship with Trump, but also, they want to be able to pursue normal diplomatic channels to advance their issues rather than have to use their wealth to gain similar results.
As for the road ahead, like many things in the Gulf States, there will not likely be any more significant announcements or agreements. Rather, things will slowly normalize in a way that allows all sides to save face.
Concerns with Iran
Tensions continue to rise between the U.S. and Iran during the waning days of the Trump Administration, mainly focused on the anniversary of the killing of Iranian IRGC General Qassem Soleimani. The recent agreement to end to Qatar Boycott is being viewed by some in the region and the U.S. as a pretext for a possible attack against Iran. Apparently, the Trump Administration has tasked the Department of Justice to provide a legal finding to determine if/how a military strike on Iran could take place legally. President Trump has also asked the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff General Mark Milley regarding options.
It is assessed that overcoming the boycott was important to solidify the political situation in the Gulf prior to possibly considering any such step, which has not been made at this point. Furthermore, by ending the boycott, Qatar would be able to cease paying the Iranians $100 million/month in overflight fees for Qatar Airways, further tightening the economic situation imposed by the U.S. sanctions.
Gulf leaders believe that this policy by President Trump is intent on placing Biden in a difficult, if not impossible, situation vis-à-vis him attempting to resurrect the JCPOA agreement in some form.
Russian Hacking Effort
The recent revelation that Russia’s SVR was able to hack into at least 200 government agencies and large U.S. and Western companies via SolarWinds has led to further investigations leading U.S. intelligence agencies to examine the role played by JetBrains. JetBrains is a Czech company founded by three Russian engineers with ties to Russia. This company is a network management software platform used by 79 of the Fortune 100 companies with more than 300,000 client firms, to include SolarWinds.
The details coming out of the SolarWinds investigation are concerning and are being intentionally downplayed by the U.S. government due to the lack of understanding of the scope or size of the intrusion. The Russians were not only able to exploit SolarWinds, and potentially JetBrains as well, to gain access to a myriad information and data, but throughout the election process they also undertook active steps to hack U.S. hospitals.
The goal in doing this was to not only gain information, but more importantly for Russia to illustrate to their own citizens and the international community the inherent weakness of the U.S. system and the government’s ability to protect critical systems, i.e. while the election may have been secure, nothing else was. U.S. officials have explained that it will take months, if not longer, to truly understand the size and scope of what was compromised.
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