This Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) Strategic Intelligence Briefing covers the period from January 12th, 2021 to January, 25th, 2021 and discusses issues related to recent economic, political, socio-cultural, and/or environmental events that may have an effect on property, travel, commercial, logistical, medical, and retail security throughout the United States or other global markets.
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Intent of Democrats to prosecute Trump
According to a senior Democratic party official, there is a singular intent and focus on not only prosecuting former President Donald Trump in the Senate and ensuring he his prohibited from ever running again for the Presidency, but also on determining if there are other charges or aspects of this case that can be pursued. The leadership has no intention or interest in possibly leveraging this case for political concessions from the Republicans. In fact, for many leaders, this is seen as a first step in being able to not only advance the Democrats’ traditional agenda with near impunity, but more importantly, a way to sideline the Republicans in the near and long term.
Troubles Within the Republican Party Are Just Starting
The leadership of the Republican party, as well as the rank-and-file, are quietly expressing concern moving forward. The most visible issue of concern is the fact that major donors to the Party are holding off with their contributions, citing concerns with the continued leadership and control over the party by Donald Trump and his family. For those who are supporters of Trump, their concerns stem from the lack of clarity regarding the direction for the Party moving forward. Once thought to be a well-oiled and disciplined machine, the Party is now seen as rudderless with no firm grasp on who makes up the Party and where it is headed. For others who are withholding their contributions, there is a concern about where and to whom the support would go.
There are elements specifically concerned with the fact that Trump may be able to leverage their contributions for his impeachment defense or some other issue(s) that are not perceived to be in support of its platform and/or its focus to regain control of the House and the Senate. In particular, it was noted that in planning for the 2022 election, there are 34 senate seats up for grabs, with 20 currently controlled by the Republicans. If the Party cannot address its internal issues well in advance of the election, it is quite possible the Democrats could realize a far greater majority. In line with this, donors have expressed concern over the potential plans by Ivanka Trump to contest the senatorial seat held by Marco Rubio in Florida.
The Impact of the SolarWinds Compromise Continues
A fourth piece of malware used by the SolarWinds hackers was detected in mid-January. Dubbed “Raindrop,” the malware is a backdoor loader that places Cobalt Strike on targeted systems to allow the attackers to move laterally through the network. While Cobalt Strike is a commercially available penetration testing tool, threat actors have since figured out how to turn it against networks to spread through an environment, exfiltrate data, deliver malware and more. In tandem, it was learned on 20 and 21 January, that the Russians behind these hacks focused additional effort to compromise applications with privileged access to Microsoft Office 365 and Azure, along with compromising security firm Malwarebytes.
These revelations will likely continue for some time as the full extent of the SolarWinds breach is still not known or fully understood. According to senior USG technical experts, the process to fully understand the extent of the breaches may never be known. While it is not considered a practical option from either a security or logistical standpoint, there has been limited discussions about options to simply get rid of all networks that may have any links to SolarWinds and start fresh.
Relatedly, the efforts by the Russians and other state actors continue. Those tracking their activities have pointed to a spike in Russian cyber actors masking their hands by pretending to be Iranians. Russians are noted for their particular skill in not only the technical/hacking space, but in their ability to mimic others to attempt to hide their role.
Social Media and Travel Threats Will Continue
While the Inauguration passed quietly in the aftermath of the 06 January siege of the Capitol in Washington D.C., federal, state, and local law enforcement continue to be concerned about potential threats from the far right, far left, as well as instigated problems from various state actors. In the case of the far right, there is a sense that they believe they were successful in bringing attention to their concerns as a result of 06 January. The security response to calls for protests in all State Capitols and in Washington D.C. testify, from their optic, to their growing influence and power. Along these lines, federal transportation officials remain attuned to the potential threat posed by such groups. While it is less related to the typical terrorist threat to hijack or blow up an aircraft, and more to the ability of such individuals to disrupt flights or use these travel routes to arrive at locations/targets of interest, there is added attention being paid to this.
For far left groups, concerns will likely grow in the near and mid term. As has been noted previously, many leaders of ANTIFA and other groups were quietly supporting President Trump in his re-election bid, for his victory would empower their cause. With President Biden now in office their concerns are focused on justifying their cause and existence. For law enforcement officials, the expectation is that these groups will continue to present a foil to far right/Pro-Trump protestors, but will also redirect their focus on internal Democratic party politics; with moderate elements of the party (likely to include President Biden) coming under criticism for either not being liberal enough or not having fulfilled perceived obligations due to these far left elements.
As for state actors, it is expected that Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea will continue to press forward with their media messaging efforts via social media and other outlets. Improving their images will likely be part of this effort with the goal of exploiting the perception that the Biden Administration is looking to improve relations with all, or most of them. That said, there is no expectation that efforts to manipulate messaging via social media will slow. The Russians, among this group, are the most adept at building on fissures in American society, giving them a greater voice and enhancing their ability to negatively impact on politics and society.
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