This Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) Strategic Intelligence Briefing covers the period from February 8th to February 22nd, 2021 and discusses issues related to recent economic, political, socio-cultural, and/or environmental events that may have an effect on property, travel, commercial, logistical, medical, and retail security throughout the United States or other global markets.
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Concerns Within the New Administration’s Path Forward
Senior representatives in the United States Government are beginning to believe that the next four years will be very much like the Obama Administration, albeit with some additional challenges. Specifically, the individuals chosen as cabinet members and agency heads come from the Obama team, albeit from the second and third tiers. While some are solid officials, they are not being seen as visionary or able/willing to make the hard decisions, but rather waiting to hear from President Biden directly how to proceed. The legalistic process that Obama was known for has not come back, but it is believed this is only a matter of time. As such, while concerns related to being under former president Trump’s microscope are gone, the decisiveness and willingness to engage adversaries in a direct way, to include taking action, are not likely to come from cabinet level officials and will be dependent solely upon Biden.
Active Threats from ISIS and al-Qaeda
TheUnited States Government has noted chatter that indicates elements of ISIS and al-Qaeda are planning to undertake a significant operation in Western Europe. Much of the concern is centered around Eastern Europe, which has the highest rate of returning foreign fighters from Syria. When foreign fighters are being arrested due to their involvement in jihadi operations in Syria, their jail sentences are short, generally only between 1-2 years. As such, not only are they able to radicalize others, but also are released and able to undertake terrorist planning. It is believed that the majority of their activities involve planning and logistical support.
Ongoing Efforts by the Republicans to Reorient and Steer Toward Success
The Republican Party leadership is clearly aware in the aftermath of the 2020 Presidential election and the failed run offs in Georgia that they are in trouble and divided. Not only are there generational divides among the leadership and members of the Senate and the House, but there is an understanding that former president Trump will need to play an active and positive role for the party to move forward and gain a majority once again in the Senate and the House in 2022, as well as position itself to regain the presidency in 2024. While Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has not publicly voiced this opinion, privately, he understands that this is the reality on the ground.
Key to any success will be the role of former president Trump and his outlook moving forward. That said, there has been considerable concern in the aftermath of the election, the 06 January siege of The Capitol, and the Inauguration. The former president was cut off from his normal means of communication (Twitter) and he was frustrated and angry at not only what he thought was a stolen election, but more importantly the perceived disloyalty of many members of his party.
Almost one month out from the Inauguration and those close to Trump have observed a changed man. He is more upbeat and positive than he has been in a long time, and, more importantly, he is emotionally stable. In this context, senior party leaders believe it is important to work to guide the former president along a positive and constructive path. Their goal is to convince him that it is not prudent to seek revenge on members of the party who he believes were disloyal, but rather to focus on the future of the party. Their goal is to attempt to play to the businessman in Trump vice the politician. In such a scenario they are working to convince the former president that by not making it personal he can then be seen domestically and internationally as the leader of the party, with it positioning itself to regain political control over the next two political cycles.
As for Trump’s previously stated desire to run for the presidency in 2024, they are hoping not to have to address this with him, but if they do, their plan is to convince him that at this stage, so close to the 2020 election, that such a step would be highly polarizing and would not aid in achieving their goals in the near term. In turn, by recrafting his image as a leader who led reconciliation within the party, it would also provide him with opportunities to expand his business efforts abroad.
Realization That Jared Has Been the Problem
There is a growing realization among the leadership of the Republican party, as well as those close to the former president, that the chief problem throughout Trump’s presidency was the significant and exaggerated role played by Jared Kushner, and to a lesser extent Ivanka. At the outset of his tenure, Chief of Staff John Kelly was able to control Jared and his efforts to gain influence and directly impact Trump, but once Kelly left, there was no one strong enough to do so.
In the aftermath of the election, in general, all close advisors and party leaders are turning against Jared, viewing him as the single point of failure and acting in his own self-interest, both politically and financially. As such, all are attempting to distance themselves from him. While it is unclear if there were be legal issues and/or criminal charges levied against him, it is considered a possibility. As for Trump’s view, it is unclear if he also holds the same view, but it is clear that as these sentiments continue to grow, he will have to come to grips with them.
Republican Strategy for Dealing with Biden
According to senior Republican and Democratic leaders (those not to the far political left), there is a growing realization and concern that President Biden has been embracing policies and decisions that are much farther left than they expected. For those advising the former president, they are counseling him that Biden is the best ally Trump could have.
It is believed that left to his own devices, Biden will undermine not only himself but the entire party, alienating its base and providing fodder for the Republicans to unify under an appropriate leader. While it has not been decided at this point who this Republican leader will be, it is generally accepted that whoever will take over the party for 2024 will need to have the blessing of Trump. The challenge with regard to this is not only the need to get the former president onboard with the need for him to constructively work to reunify the party, but also to introduce the concept of a new leader in a manner that addresses his ego, not an insignificant issue.
Iran Presents a Significant Threat Due to Tact Taken by the Biden Administration
There is growing concern that the mixed signals being sent by the Biden Administration with regard to Iran are leading the Islamic Republic to assess it is untouchable. Over the past month, the discussion by the Administration of moving forward to renegotiate the nuclear agreement with Iran is being viewed by many senior U.S. political and IC leaders as concerning. Specifically, Iranian actions throughout this time have been more overt and aggressive then observed earlier, despite statements by the President in early February that Iran would have to stop enriching uranium before his administration would lift sanctions.
The mid-January steps taken by Iran to enrich uranium to the 20% level, close to the purity needed for a nuclear weapon, was among the recent steps taken. Others include Iran telling the UN nuclear watchdog that it will scale back cooperation with it; and Iran seizing a South Korean oil tanker in the Gulf on January 04, 2021 in an effort to press Seoul to release $7 billion in funds frozen amid U.S. sanctions. In addition, in early February the Oldsmar water treatment facility located near Tampa, FL was unsuccessfully hacked by individuals suspected of being from Iran.
Also, on 15 February a previously obscure pro-Iranian group called “The Guardians of Blood Brigades” launched a missile attack against a base used by U.S.-led coalition forces in Irbil, injuring one U.S. service member and five contractors. While the latter and the Seoul tanker incident were strenuously condemned by the U.S. Administration. Throughout this period Iran has been seen as stepping up its cyber activities against the U.S. and the West, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei stating on 17 February that Iran will only accept and react to positive action by other parties to its 2015 nuclear deal as it has seen promises broken before.
In this environment, Secretary of State Blinken commented on 16 February that “the path to diplomacy is open right now” with Iran over its 2015 nuclear deal. “Iran is still a ways away from being in compliance with the deal. So we will have to see what it does.” While these comments were noncommittal and require Iran to take significant steps, concerns voiced by senior officials is that Iran, despite aggressive steps taken against the U.S. and its allies, views the pathway forward as not only clear, but that the policy direction committed to by the Administration since the campaign will rapprochement with Iran.
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