This Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) Strategic Intelligence Briefing covers the period from February 23rd to March 8th, 2021 and discusses issues related to recent economic, political, socio-cultural, and/or environmental events that may have an effect on property, travel, commercial, logistical, medical, and retail security throughout the United States or other global markets.
The Strategic Intelligence Briefing is developed by the Brosnan Intelligence Group (BIG) and is a bi-weekly, high-level version of the type of Intelligence as a Service (IaaS) that Brosnan offers as part of our overall security offerings. In addition to striving for operational excellence as one of the best security guard companies in the nation, we set ourselves apart from other security services companies by providing our clients throughout the United States with products that are designed to arm them with actionable data that they need to make informed security-related and business decisions throughout all levels their organizations.
We hope you find value in the following Strategic Intelligence Briefing. If you would like to discuss opportunities for customized security briefings for your organization, please let us know here:
Overview of George Floyd Trial and the Likelihood for Civil Unrest
The focus for this week and the weeks to come will be the George Floyd trial in Minneapolis that starts with jury selection on 08 March, likely taking three weeks. While considered a landmark trial as a potential barometer of change in the country, there are concerns related to the charges against Chauvin and the likelihood he will be convicted.
The Judge is considering a last-minute addition of a third-degree murder charge that would give prosecutors another avenue for conviction. This decision, should it be pursued (likely on the morning of 08 March), could lead to appeals and a subsequent delay in the trial, further exacerbating tensions.
Details on the trial:o Opening arguments are expected to begin as soon as 29 March.
o Deliberations by the jury could likely begin in late April or early May.
o The trial for the remaining three officers is set to begin in August.
o The Chauvin trial will be televised throughout by CourtTV – the first time this has been allowed in Minnesota.
Charges:
o Chauvin is being charged with second-degree unintentional murder and second-degree manslaughter. If he is convicted on both counts the likely prison sentence will be circa 15 years.
Chauvin’s Defense:
o He acted in self-defense and used reasonable and authorized force as a police officer.
The Case Against Chauvin:
o The viral video footage of the event and Chauvin’s past record of using force.
Protests and Response:
o Protests have already taken place and are expected to continue through the proceedings.
o At least 2000 National Guardsmen and 1100 law enforcement officers have been called up.
o Protective measures for all municipal and government buildings in Minneapolis and some in St Paul being put in place.
Likelihood of Civil Unrest:
o The possibility is quite high given the likelihood that Chauvin will likely plea to lesser charges since it will be difficult to convict him of the charges filed against him.
Given the significant emotion component to this trial, it is likely that if the result does not marry up with the expectation by the crowd, civil unrest in not only Minneapolis, but other locations in the U.S. could take place. As such, police forces across the U.S. are preparing for this possibility over the course of the next two months.
DeSantis’ Star is Rising – Embracing an Anti-China Program
Despite the recent reappearance of former president Trump on to the national stage, the rising star inside the Republican party is Governor of Florida Ron DeSantis among all elements of the party leadership. DeSantis’ leadership over the near period is being seen as a model and a validation of those who believe the country has, in general, overreacted in closing down of the economies of many states in response to COVID-19. While DeSantis got off to a bad start with his response to Florida in early/mid 2020, things have turned around greatly over the past months.
In addition, DeSantis’ approach to dealing with China is being seen as supporting efforts to address this existential threat head on, something that many in the Republican party and elsewhere do not see coming out of the Biden Administration.
In particular, DeSantis unveiled on 01 March an effort to address Chinese influence in Florida. Calling the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) attempts to influence domestic and international affairs “one of the most pervasive threats to American Security and property,” he is pushing forward the following:
- Providing strategic safeguards addressing concerns of the CCP, and other foreign powers, influencing the government, as well as academia and the economy.
- Chinese ties to Education: State agencies, state universities, public schools, and local governments must never use tax dollars to establish language and culture programs with foreign governments that place the interest of those governments ahead of our own interests.
o The proposal will require public institutions of higher education to report any gift of $50,000 more from a foreign government or a foreign person.
o It will require strict vetting and review processes of foreign applications for important research positions.
o State agencies must report any gift over $50,000 and require anyone seeking a grant or contract from the state for more than $100,000 to disclose any contact with, donation from, or grant received from seven countries of concern. Those include China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, and Venezuela.
o Private entities seeking public grants or contacts in excess of $100,000 will be required to report any contact with, donation from, or grant received from persons or entities substantially influenced by such government, having a value in excess of $50,000 from the previous five years.
The action will bolster law enforcement’s ability to go after corporate spies and beef penalties for any corporate espionage that benefits a foreign government.
- Theft of IP/Technology: The Governor plans to modernize Florida law to include theft of cloud technology and create a third-degree felony for a person who commits theft of a trade secret and a second-degree felony [for] trafficking trade secrets.
o Someone who does it for a foreign agent or entity will have their offense reclassified one degree higher “resulting in longer prison sentences.
Dynamics Inside the White House
While President Biden is being lauded for the professional nature of his appointment and selections, it will come as no surprise that the politics of the Obama Administration are playing a role in not only who is selected, but also the position they have been given. It was noted by senior officials that during the Obama Administration there was “no love lost” between members of Obama’s team and Biden’s. While political realities within the Democratic party have caused Biden to “have to” choose some members for his team, he has attempted to put them in roles that will limit their influence.
Susan Rice was noted as one particular appointment who falls into this category. While highly skilled and experienced, she also voiced a strong desire to take a senior position within the Administration. This was not unknown throughout and there was concern among many senior elements of the national security apparatus that she could be selected to be Secretary of State or DCIA. As such, her selection as the Director of the US Domestic Policy Council was viewed with a great sense of relief, and a result of the tensions that had previously existed under the Obama Administration.
Dynamics Within the Gulf States
The current dynamics in the Gulf have caused confusion regarding who is playing what role and how things will fall over the near term. The recent phone call between President Biden and Saudi King Salman, which led to a wrist slap from the U.S. on the Saudis, is being viewed with a sigh of relief as KSA expected a politically uncomfortable situation in which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) could have been the subject of sanctions or worse. While Democratic lawmakers are still attempting for put such steps forward to pressure the Administration, Gulf leaders believe much of the danger has passed.
However, this uncertainty, and the desire of the U.S. President to go around MBS and deal only with the King has created renewed concerns on the ground in KSA. In particular, concerns from various corners are focused on the possibility of MBS attempting to further shore up his control over the family and systems in place with regard to succession. Much has already been done, with many questioning the logic of attempting to sideline the Crown Prince given the limited capacity of the King and the steps taken to date by MBS to wrest control away from any other pretenders to the throne.
In parallel, there are also political machinations taking place in other corners of the Gulf. In the UAE, Abu Dhabi President and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed has quietly made moves to elevate the role played by his son, Khalid bin Muhammad. While such moves are not akin to those made by MBS over the years to secure his position, there will be an impact as the senior most portfolios and positions at the present time are controlled by MBZ and his brothers.
In the case of Qatar, there is much discussion that its star is rising, and it will play a central role in the region under the Biden Administration. However, these suggestions have not been born out yet, and will require Qatar to take active steps as well to engage – something that is being discussed but has not yet happened. There has also been chatter that Qatar will act as an intermediary for rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran. As with other issues, this has not come to pass or been embraced by any of the powers involved. While it is not off the table, much will depend upon how Iran responds to U.S. calls to cease enrichment efforts, as well as the steps taken by the Qatari leadership.
Status of Far-Right Extremism
Since the Inauguration senior FBI and law enforcement officials have continued to track planning and efforts by the Far-Right. Concerns continue given ongoing chatter and planning, as was recently highlighted around the upcoming State of the Union Address, as well as the Derek Chauvin trial, which will commence with jury selection on March 8th,2 021.
However, these officials have also noted that things are quiet and they expect the trigger event(s) to be centered on what role and statements come from former president Trump. His speech during CPAC was watched closely, with no specific concerns noted. However, officials continue to watch his role, both in public and social media, for the possibility that his supporters among the Far-Right may assess his statements and actions as calls to action prompting the need for some organizations to adopt an increased security presence.
Initial Approaches to Russia and China
While the Biden Administration, as well as the Intelligence Community, have stated the coming period will be primarily focused on Russia and China, there remains debate. With regard to Russia, there is clarity an unanimity within the Administration that active steps need to be taken to reign in Putin and his efforts worldwide. However, with regard to China, it is generally accepted that China represents the chief existential threat to the U.S., there is no consensus as to how to deal with the country. There are competing strategies of engaging China that range from undoing the hostile approach of former president Trump to those looking to more aggressively confront the Chinese.
Furthermore, in this environment less effort and resources will be directed at the terrorist target. While focus will continue to be on high value targets and threats to the homeland, it will not be to the same degree as it has been over the past.
Intelligence as a Service
Sometimes referred to as a threat intelligence report, a strategic intelligence report is used to aggregate information into actionable data and adversary understanding. Brosnan Risk Consultants specializes in intelligence-driven, integrated risk management solutions that enable national and global organizations to operate throughout the world with confidence. Brosnan's world-class security services, threat intelligence products, innovative security technologies, and emergency response services help organizations to mitigate risk and protect their customers, employees, and assets.
Our Intelligence as a Service products can enable your organization to make operational, strategic, and/or tactical decisions by providing you with actionable data that has a high degree of relevancy and probability. This data often used to help steer our client’s out of harm’s way and protect their brands’ reputation.
Want to see how our Intelligence as a Service products can help your organization? Click the link below to learn how to get your custom Intelligence Report.
Thanks for reading!
Need some assistance? Let us know how we can help!
