This Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) Strategic Intelligence Briefing covers the period from March 8th to March 21st, 2021 and discusses issues related to recent political, economic, socio-cultural, and/or environmental events that may have an effect on property, travel, commercial, logistical, medical, and retail security throughout the United States or other global markets.
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Long Term Concerns Related to the Chauvin Trial
While a great deal of attention and effort is being directed at events in/around the Derek Chauvin trial to ensure potential civil unrest and protests do not spiral out of control in the way that they did in the aftermath of the George Floyd incident, there are longer term concerns plaguing law enforcement nationwide. National and local law enforcement are tracking all legal cases involving police officers as possible flash points.
Not only does each have the prospect of leading to local, regional and/or national concerns, but more importantly, the leaderships are looking at the Chauvin trial as potentially setting a precedent for future instances. Should protestors be able to affect change (legal, reform, political or social) via their activities, this could lead to a new model for protests in the future. Such activities would further energize the far-left movements nationwide, many of whom were searching for a purpose after the Biden victory. In turn, this would also further energize the far right, who would view such protests as fodder for their rank and file. Business owners with location inside potential flashpoint communities should consider preparing for civil unrest and take measures for retail loss prevention.
The New Administration to Double Down on Russia
The Biden Administration is planning to undertake a concerted effort to address the Russia and its ongoing efforts to undermine the U.S. and the West. The plan is to not only engage in a broad array of unilateral economic sanctions, but also to enlist the support of allies and others. This is being crafted as the most concerted effort to directly address the Russians since President Reagan and the Cold War. Within the Administration there are a number of Russia Hawks, to include Secretary of State Blinken, CIA Director Burns, National Security Advisor Sullivan, as well as the President, pushing forward with this effort.
This will commence shortly with direct and harsh economic sanctions with the justification being Russia’s ongoing efforts, which include the SolarWinds hack and election/social media meddling stemming from the 2016 and 2020 elections. Other nations will be engaged directly and told that they must determine where they stand given this long-term policy being undertaken by the U.S. and will impact on other issues.
While it is unclear how Russia will respond, it is expected they will have to in short order. Cyber attacks have been among their preferred method to date, and it is assessed that this will be stepped up. In addition, leveraging proxy forces, such as those in Syria and Ukraine/Crimea, are also thought to be possible options to put pressure on the U.S. Given the economic issues facing Russia, and its limited economic capacity, along with the fact that President Putin only appears to be influenced by embarrassment, it is believed this is the only option facing the U.S. to mitigate these continuing attacks.
Political Glossary:
What is a hawk in politics?
The term "war hawk" was coined in 1792 and was often used to ridicule politicians who favored a pro-war policy in peacetime. A war hawk, or simply hawk, is used in politics today to describe someone who favors war or escalation tactics in an existing conflict as opposed to other, more peaceful, or diplomatic solutions. “Hawks” are the opposite of “doves.” The terms were originated by way of correlation with the birds of the same name: hawks are predators that attack and eat other animals, whereas doves mostly eat seeds and fruit and are historically a symbol of peace. To be a hawk in any subject means that you would take a more aggressive approach in dealing in that subject; however, the term is most often used when describing a politician’s stance on specific foreign policy towards an organization or nation. For instance, a politician who is a considered hawkish might vote in favor of continuing a particular military operation instead of ending it.
What is a Russia hawk?
In US politics, the term “Russia Hawk” is used to describe someone who would rather take a more direct and, potentially more aggressive, political stance against Russia. US President’s Ronald Regan and Joe Biden have been described as some of the most notable Russia Hawks.
Things are Heating Up with China
In parallel with efforts to directly confront Russia, the U.S. is similarly enlisting the support of other countries to confront China. The purpose of the recent travel of Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Defense Austin to the Pacific region for meetings in Japan and Korea was to shore up key support among the Asia-Pacific (APAC) nations, creating a unified front. The aim is to put in place the building blocks for this front, starting with the most significant and closest U.S. allies in the region, to show America’s commitment and resolve.
Challenges related to China are multifaceted, but in the APAC region, there is particular concern that they are looking to further expand their maritime zone by building more artificial islands. The purpose of these islands would essentially be to limit the ability of the U.S. Navy’s carriers to move freely in this area. As such, if the U.S. cannot get its carriers into the region to come to the aid of Taiwan, China has more options for possible unification scenarios.
That said, the U.S. resolve and focus on expanding the front against China is gaining support. The European Union's 27 ambassadors agreed to impose new sanctions on 11 individuals from China and other countries over human rights abuses. They will be the first sanctions against Beijing since an EU arms embargo in 1989 following the Tiananmen Square crackdown.
In turn, U.S. rhetoric and posturing are ramping up. Secretary of State Blinken said China was acting aggressively and repressively - “China is using coercion and aggression to systematically erode autonomy in Hong Kong, undercut democracy in Taiwan, abuse human rights in Xinjiang and Tibet, and assert maritime claims in the South China Sea that violate international law.”
In addition, the U.S. sanctioned an additional 24 Chinese and Hong Kong officials over Beijing’s ongoing crackdown on political freedoms in the semi-autonomous city just prior to Blinken’s face-to-face talks with China in Alaska. This was echoed by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, who called China’s military increasingly capable, saying its “aggressive” actions posed a threat to regional peace, stability in the Pacific and the “rules-based international order.” She added that the U.S. will need “to demonstrate the will and capability to credibly deter PRC aggression.”
The CT Fight Continues
Despite the fact that the focus of the new Administration will be on dealing with China, Russia and other Counterintelligence threats, the fight against terrorism is expected to continue to be supported. The questions moving forward though involve more process than resolve. Those in the current Administration were involved in this fight prior to the Trump Administration in a much more legalistic manner, i.e. the process piece was much more firmly entrenched. This is in contrast to the Trump Administration which decentralized much of this war, providing battlefield commanders and Agency/Department heads with greater latitude to make decisions.
While it is broadly accepted in the National Security space that Trump’s approach was more efficient and provided the same validation of the threat with less process, there will likely be an ongoing debate as to how this will take place under a Biden Presidency.
What to do with Iran?
Iran continues to pose a number of challenges to the Administration given its desire to find a path to renew both the U.S. and Iran’s willingness to engage in a nuclear agreement. Compounding the problems around this hope is the fact that Iran feels it must respond to the U.S. killing of Qasem Soleimani and the Israeli killing of its chief nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. It is assessed by senior officials that the Iranians believe “they owe the U.S. one.” And, in fact, the same is assessed for al-Qaida, given the ongoing and highly successful efforts by the U.S. Interestingly, there is a confluence between Iran and al-Qaida given the executive leadership of the latter has been in Iran for some time. For instance, Sayf al-Adil has been in Tehran since 2002, either under arrest, house arrest, or more recently, allowed to wander freely.
While Iran has its own problems with al-Qaida, using its willingness to house their leadership as a way to mitigate the group’s operations in Iran, the U.S. could make among the conditions to lift sanctions the ability of the U.S. or a friendly state to detain all or some of these leaders. While it is anything from certain given how Iran negotiates, it is an option worth pursuing given the new international political climate.
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