This Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) Strategic Intelligence Briefing covers the period from March 23rd to April 5th, 2021 and discusses issues related to recent economic, political, socio-cultural, and/or environmental events that may have an effect on property, travel, commercial, logistical, medical, and retail security throughout the United States or other global markets.
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Continuing Concerns Related to the Chauvin Trial
While the prosecution was successful during the first week of the Derek Chauvin trial, especially with regards to the testimony of the head of the homicide division Lt. Richard Zimmerman who testified that Chauvin violated policy by kneeling on Floyd’s neck, concerns continue among law enforcement. These concerns were piqued by events earlier in the week with the defense’s questioning of witness Donald Williams II. Their approach led some to believe that he was attempting to characterize him as “angry,” leading to outrage and criticism on social media against this line of questioning.
Heretofore most of the attention and concern being paid by local Minneapolis and other police forces around the country was on the potential for social unrest and violence at the reading of the verdict. As such, the aforementioned made it clear that there are other flashpoints that need to be considered, with some likely unexpected.
As the prosecution likely wraps up its case this week, and the defense takes over, greater attention is expected to be paid to the likelihood that the defense’s strategy, which will bring evidence that Floyd died due to a medical emergency resulting for an overdose of fentanyl, and Chauvin following police procedures (despite Zimmerman’s testimony). This will likely be viewed by protestors supporting as proof of their earlier contention that Chauvin will not be found guilty and the whole issue was pre-cooked by the system.
“Will he” or “Wont he” Set Up a Social Media Platform
There continues to be a great deal of attention and, excitement and/or concern, depending upon where one sits politically, at the possibility of former president Trump setting up his own social media platform. According to senior advisors, the former president remains intent on creating such a platform, directing his people to begin the process. The actual mechanics of the platform are not certain at this point, but it is believed it could be up and running within a few months.
It is expected that when this takes place that Trump will begin to be as active as he had been previously. Initial indications are that he is starting to feel more comfortable in his role as a former president and is looking to position himself as the active leader of the party.
As for the possibility of him running for the presidency again, while senior aides and party officials have learned to never say never about Trump, they are sensing a willingness by him to accept the reality that he will not, and someone such as Florida Governor Rick DeSantis could be the front runner.
According to aides, the former president still has the desire to return to the position but does not necessarily have the choice anymore given realities on the ground. It appears from their optic that he is slowly coming to accept this reality.
All Hands on Deck for Russia and China
President Biden and his national security leadership are intent of continuing to push forward aggressively against both Russia and China. While sanctions continue to be the main tool they will employ, especially with regard to Russia, the efforts will be wide ranging and expansive.
This is being viewed not as a short-term strategy to address the actions Russia took to influence the elections in 2016 and 2020, as well as the significant cyber attacks over the past year, most notably SolarWinds. But rather, this is meant to be a long-term effort for the U.S. to not only respond, but also to regain its standing internationally.
Cyberattacks continue to be assessed as the main weapon the Russian’s will employ to respond, along with diplomatic machinations at the U.N. and via its allies and proxy nations/groups.
Africa to be an Area of Focus for the U.S. Administration
As with the steps being taken to address the threats from Russia and China internationally, the Administration recognizes that the U.S. has long ignored the African Continent. As such, it is focused on attempting to regain losses throughout the region.
Senior officials have explained that the new U.S. course will be a 180 degree change from the past in which the U.S. divested itself from Africa, allowing China to gain a strong hold over the continent and its resources. Not only is the Secretary of State engaged, but also Congressional leaders such as Senator Chris Coons, a prominent member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and previously the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on African Affairs.
Senator Coons recently travelled to Ethiopia to meet with leaders to discuss ways to enhance the U.S. position in that country and in the region. Also, the Commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) General Stephen Townsend is similarly engaged.
The Republican Party is Getting Its Act Together
The senior leadership of the Republican Party has been working to overcome internal divisions and uncertainty around the role of former president Trump to unify and position itself for the 2022 Congressional elections. It has also started formulating a plan for potential leadership candidates. While there remain limited pockets of discord throughout the party, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is being viewed as the likely front runner at the current time. Despite some recent issues related to his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the state, he is viewed as someone who the party can rally around in the wake of the Trump Administration.
While president Trump continues to voice the possibility of running again in 2024 for the presidency, there is a growing acceptance from within the party that this is not likely. Rather, their efforts to focus the former president on business opportunities, as well as a role of “kingmaker” for future party leaders/candidates, appears to be striking a chord.
Nevertheless, the party’s leadership has learned that they can never say never with Trump. As for initial assessments for 2022, leading Republicans believe that the party has a better chance than ever to regain the House of Representatives, with a good, albeit less likely chance of gaining a larger majority in the Senate. They believe this is due to the performance of Biden to date, viewing him and the Vice-President as being “frozen in place.”
With their confidence growing, Republicans intend to start stepping out, calling into question all of what the President is doing in an effort to undercut and undermine his position nationally. If and when they are able to gain the House, the intent of the Republican leadership is to stymie every aspect of Biden’s agenda for the remainder of his term. While some of this is due to traditional partisan wrangling, in fact, the principal driver of this tact is the fact that Biden did not engage any Republicans in any part of this agenda; freezing them out.
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