This Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) Strategic Intelligence Briefing covers the period from April 5th to April 19th, 2021 and discusses issues related to recent economic, political, socio-cultural, and/or environmental events that may have an effect on property, travel, commercial, logistical, medical, and retail security throughout the United States or other global markets.
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What are the likely trigger points moving forward?
While the protest and civil unrest witnessed across the U.S. has increased greatly in the aftermath of the death of Daunte Wright and Adam Toledo, and the ongoing testimony of the Derek Chauvin trial, senior law enforcement officers across the U.S. are noting that these activities are generally small in nature and easily controllable by police, with the exception of those taking place in Portland, Seattle and Minneapolis. These latter three locations are well known sites for not only violent protestors, but for the Far Left to use to attempt to exacerbate the situation nationally. Overall, those individuals who have come out to protest the Wright and Toledo killings are not extremists, but rather are seeking justice for the family. As such, police are not seeing the activities to date become like those of last summer. However, it is important to note that it is always recommended for businesses in potential hot zones to consider an emergency response contract with a reputable security services company.
There are a number of key upcoming events that could trigger broad unrest nationally that are being closely monitored by law enforcement. First and foremost is the verdict in the Floyd trial. It is expected that this could take place as soon as 20 April at the current pace of testimony. Should Chauvin be found not guilty, it is highly probable that mass protests will take place with violence and social unrest across the U.S., but most intense in locations such as Portland, Seattle, and Minneapolis. In this context, it is unclear what the impact of a guilty verdict to a lesser charge would be. It was noted that those who do not like the police will never be happy with what happens, and this core group will always be looking to incite violence on a larger scale. However, as with the Wright protestors, there will likely be as many individuals protesting Floyd who are not prone to violence.
The second issue that is being watched closely is the ongoing impact of the Adam Toledo police body camera footage in Chicago. Toledo was shot and killed by police on 29 March during a foot chase. Toledo, a known member of a gang, was armed. However, given the age of Toledo (13-years-old), the emotion surrounding his death, and the appearance of him dropping the weapon prior to being shot (based upon secondhand accounts), this could fuel additional protest and exacerbate unrest, especially when taken in tandem with the Wright killing and the upcoming Chauvin verdict.
Finally, on 14 April, former Brooklyn Center Police Department officer Kim Potter was charged with second degree manslaughter for the killing Daunte Wright during a traffic stop. This charge was filed by the Washington County Attorney because it did not require a grand jury to be convened. The intent behind this from the State was to take swift action to attempt to quell the violence and anger on the street. It is possible at a later time that the state will call a grand jury to charge Potter with first degree manslaughter, but this has not been decided. That said, there have already been calls by Wright’s family for stronger charges, with the District Attorney also coming under fire for charging her with what is considered to be a lesser charge.
As for expectations going forward, it is believed that protests will likely continue across the country for Wright and Floyd, however, heretofore the numbers have been less than 250 in most locations; easy enough for police to control. That said, the recent spate of mass shootings, combined with the ongoing protests in support of Wright, Toledo and Floyd, are serving to ramp up concerns this week in advance of the Chauvin verdict.
In Minneapolis, it is assessed that the tactics being deployed by the Brooklyn Center police, along with the National Guard and the strong curfew put in place by Governor Tim Walz, have kept things from getting out of control. While there has been pressure on the Governor to lift the curfew and limit the National Guard due to complaints that the city has become overly militarized, it is expected that there will be no changes. As such, while the protests will likely continue, and will possibly be violent, it is assessed the combined police-National Guard presence will mitigate any more significant problems from arising. This is something that other law enforcement agencies nationwide are watching closely as they do not want to revisit the riots and looting of last summer.
Throughout, the Far Right has been quiet, and they are expected to remain this way. While white supremacists and others are active on social media expressing their frustrations at the Biden Administration for its leftist policies, they are also aware that they are the main target for the FBI and law enforcement. In fact, senior law enforcement officials have expressed their frustration at the singular focus of present efforts on Far Right activists. They point to the recent shooting in Boulder, Colorado on 22 March when Ahmad Al Aliwi Alissa killed 10 people at the King Scoopers grocery store, along with the 02 April attack on the Capitol by Noah Green as illustrative of this ongoing phenomenon. It was noted that Alissa is not only from Raqqah, Syria, but his brothers were known supporters of ISIS, while Green was an active member of the Nation of Islam. In both cases there were a nexus to terrorism that has not been fully explored or investigated
Problems along the border are going from bad to worse
The current crisis along the U.S. Southern border has left federal, state and local law enforcement in a difficult position both internally as well as moving forward. At the present time, the level of frustration by many is palpable given the dramatic shift that was put in place since the Biden Administration has come to office. During the Trump Administration the number of immigrants was limited, with the processes in place defined. Furthermore, the Mexican government was an active player in limiting the numbers of immigrants traveling through its country and to the border as they were required to house them.
This all changed immediately when the Biden Administration took over. At present, the rules of engagement do not allow for any child or anyone traveling with a child to be turned back. Currently the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency is caring for more than 5000 children. While most arrive with telephone numbers of family either on a slip of paper in their pocket or written on their arm/hand in marker, they are not allowed to leave the facility until CBP is able to confirm that the person in the U.S. is family. If they cannot, or a child arrives without a family member awaiting them in the U.S., the child is then processed and sent to a center somewhere in the U.S. for placement with a foster family. As for those coming across requesting asylum, CBP has been advised that it will process any claim for asylum, regardless. Therefore, these individuals are processed and allowed to enter the U.S.
It is not expected that this will change any time soon, but rather could get worse during the summer. In addition to the frustration evinced by officers on post, there are real concerns. Specifically, the manpower requirements to handle this influx have taxed CBP to the point where they must direct officers from other parts of the U.S. to the border. Not only does this affect offices across the U.S. at other ports of entry, but also, it distracts CBP from other efforts. It was noted that there are concerns that drug trafficking and the flow of money from the U.S. to Mexico are facilitated due to the increasing numbers of immigrants. Of further concern is the ability of nefarious elements associated with rouge nations or terrorist groups able to illegally cross into the U.S. Recently CBP was able to detain Yemenis and Iranians known to be involved in illicit activities. While these were important detentions, there is a widespread belief that there are many others able to get into the country more easily due to the current situation.
Frustrations with the Biden Administration’s Pace of Appointments
Senior officials in various national security agencies have expressed ongoing and mounting concern related to the relatively slow pace of appointments by the Biden Administration for senior positions. It was noted that this trend was not blamed on Senate confirmation for the positions, but simply the naming of people for key positions. In one instance, it was noted that at State Department, the only senior positions made to date have dealt with China and Mexico; and this is only because of the current crises in both locations.
Other areas of the world facing challenges are still without senior level policy officials to guide not only policy formation but also the day-to-day running of the offices, both in the U.S. and abroad. With the recently announced aggressive policy against Russia, there are concerns that without people in positions able to guide and implement policy and programs, the U.S. could face a difficult and hazardous situation in the near term.
Path forward with Iran certain but not
While President Biden was quite clear during the campaign regarding his intention to revisit and reenter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement with Iran, the reality of implementing this has been a bit more complicated. Among policy makers in Washington DC there are a number of competing approaches. Another key aspect has also been the Iranians themselves and their statements and efforts to expand their enrichment program.
As for the policy aspects there are currently four competing positions among various constituencies in Washington DC competing to take the lead vis-à-vis Iran. These include the following:
- Maximum Pressure: This approach is an extension of the Trump Administration’s policy of isolation and pressuring Iran via sanctions and other means of coercion. The goal is to dismantle both Iran’s nuclear and ballistic weapons programs, while also tying these efforts to Iran’s support of terrorist groups, i.e. Hamas, Hizballah, and the Huthis. That said, the ultimate goal is regime change. Those supporting this effort include far right Republicans, to include Tom Cotton, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo and their associated conservative think tanks.
- JCPOA-Plus: This approach is aimed at linking a reinvigoration of the JCPOA with an effort to expand its scope. This would include extending the timeline of the key provisions on the nuclear side with Iran’s ballistic weapons program and its ongoing support of various malign groups. The approach would lead with diplomacy, however, it would be backed up with the threat of military force. While not supportive of the regime, rather than overthrowing the leadership this approach would aim to contain it. Those adhering to this group include leaders such as Bob Menendez, Lindsey Graham and Mike McCaul.
- JCPOA Sequencing: This approach is focused on sequencing a negotiation for both the U.S. and Iran to rejoin and comply with the original JCPOA. The first step would be incumbent upon Iran to comply with the agreement, with the U.S. using sanctions as a leverage. The approach would be solely diplomatic, and if embraced, could happen quickly. Other non-nuclear related issues of concern could be addressed at a later date. As for the regime, those supporting this effort contend that the Iranian leadership will act in the best interests of all in the short and long term. Those adhering to this group are from the Center-Left.
- JCPOA-U.S. First: This approach suggests that the U.S. should comply and reenter the JCPOA as soon as possible, all the while shaming Iran for not complying throughout. Following all sides complying with the JCPOA, the U.S. could negotiate further agreements with Iran using diplomacy and various “carrots” to encourage the Iranians. This group, which consists primarily of the Progressive Left, believe the regime is legitimate and will act in its best interests.
As for how this will play out, the Biden Administration’s goal is to pursue JCPOA Sequencing and eventually move toward the goals of JCPOA-Plus. That said, there are differences among the various stakeholders in the Administration. Secretary of State Blinken, Deputy Secretary of State nominee Wendy Sherman, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan have committed to some sort of JCPOA-Plus approach. However, Rob Malley, the U.S. Special Envoy on Iran has made statements supporting the JCPOA Sequencing approach. That said, there are others influencing the process, with the Progressive Left and other political activists attempting to influence the process. Furthermore, the U.S. has committed to consulting with Israel at every level of the process given its stated strategic concerns with the Iranian nuclear program.
As such, what is clear is that while there will be an agreement, there is still no clarity on what it will look like; with the Iranians not having been given a vote yet.
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