This Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) Strategic Intelligence Briefing covers the period from December 14th, 2020 to December 28th, 2020 and discusses issues related to recent political, economic, socio-cultural, and/or environmental events that may have an effect on property, travel, commercial, and retail security throughout the United States or other global markets.
The Strategic Intelligence Briefing is a bi-weekly, high level version of the type of intelligence reporting services that Brosnan offers as part of our overall security services. Besides being one of the best security guard companies in the United States, Brosnan's Intelligence as a Service (IaaS) is another fundamental service included in our comprehensive list of security products and services that sets us apart from other security services companies.
Worsening Economic and Travel Situation Looming
For large companies in NYC and around the country, the new year will bring not only uncertainty with regard to the new Administration and how its priorities will impact on the economy and their bottom lines, but also the reality that operational expenses have gotten too large and will need to be addressed. This in tandem with a new work reality in which firms are finding they do not need to have as much staff, either in the office or actually on their payrolls, will see changes which could drive an economic downturn in the short and midterms.
Specifically, large multinationals are looking to lay off large segments of their work forces, especially among the white-collar class. In addition, workspace issues are being reassessed as many firms have less than 1% of their work forces coming into the office. Of those who were allowed into the offices after the first peak, leadership observed most were not committed to being back, nervous about the pandemic and more focused on ensuring they had their personal possessions in hand due to the likelihood of further draw downs of staff at work. 
As for the impact of the markets facing many in the financial sector, business travel has essentially ceased to exist in the current environment, while personal travel has similarly seen a dramatic drop off. As for how this looks into the future, it is assessed that it will take between 3-5 years to get the travel sector back to 50% of where it was pre-COVID-19. As for the other 50%, it is believed that this market has vanished for good. As travel restrictions due to coronavirus are eased, there will be a renewed effort to make travelers feel safe. Increases in premises security throughout airports, hotels and resorts should be expected. Heightened instances of security guards and security personnel should become more commonplace.
Russian Hacking
The recent uncovering of a widespread Russian hacking effort via the Solar Winds platform, which has compromised U.S. government (USG) and corporate systems, was not a surprise to senior U.S. government officials. While they were not aware of the specific compromise or the potential for this or other platforms to be exploited, the efforts by Russia to actively target and exploit USG systems is well known. The problem with the Solar Winds compromise is that the USG really does not know how much it lost or how widespread the exploitation is.
The guidance from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) is to shut down those compromised, or potentially compromised systems to assess and protect information, then delete compromised or potentially compromised parts of the system or files. While this can be an effective mitigating strategy, it is also illustrative of the fact that CISA and other top cyber officials, do not really know how bad the situation is. Suffice to say, while this is clearly one of the most significant compromises to have taken place, those in senior positions also believe that the true threat in the future will come from the Chinese. The Russians, Iranians, and North Koreans, while all capable to different degrees, are well understood and are not seen as representing an existential threat to the U.S., which China does.
Chinese Leak and the Real Issue
In mid-December, the Australian, Sky News Australia, and the Daily Mail, all reported about a leaked list of more than two million names from 2016 of members of the Communist Party in Shanghai. The stories went on to explain that among those listed were networks of spies in major U.S. and Western firms and embassies/consulates. Among those included were Pfizer, AstraZeneca, ANZ, HSBC Bank, Boeing, and Volkswagen, as well as at least 10 consulates in Shanghai.
Many press outlets are making a big deal of this fact, and while it is concerning that there are large numbers of Chinese Communist party members working in such places with sensitive access, this is no real surprise to senior U.S. Government officials. It is generally assumed that any local national working at a foreign embassy is likely compromised, either by choice or being cajoled into cooperation by the local security services. This is the same case for foreign employees of firms, especially those with access to sensitive information or technologies.
In the case of the Shanghai list exposed recently, while it provides a useful tool for corporate security departments and counter-intelligence officers to use as a public way to express their concerns, it also highlights concerns that often go ignored in the private sector; that the threat from China is real and active. Via their party mechanisms, as well as the very nature of the system, China can project its influence and power via such non-traditional means. Over the last generation and more, Chinese nationals have been able to assimilate themselves into many different countries, companies, and governments. While the vast majority are not under the control of the Communist party, there are many who are. This has long been a foreign policy goal and strategy of the PRC, as evidenced by the recent revelations of a Chinese woman in an intimate relationship with Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and two other mayors. For the Congressman, while he claims not to have shared any information, he maintained access to the most sensitive reporting and programs the U.S. government. This is part and parcel of why China pursues such tactics.
Political Developments
Developments related to President Trump continue to cause uncertainty and concern as we lead up to the 2021 Presidential Inauguration. For those in his inner circle, there is an understanding that many of the current challenges and options facing the President vis-à-vis him trying to overturn the election are in large part to him having a poor group of lawyers supporting his cause. It is believed that if the steps being taken at the present time to bring a case to the Supreme Court had been pursued immediately after the election, then there could have been time to not only present a solid case, but also to build public support. However, at the present time, although there may be validity to some of Trump’s concerns, it is next to impossible to envision a scenario whereby the President can have the election overturned. Furthermore, it is believed that while the Supreme Court will hear the case related to Georgia, and they may actually find for the President, at least two other states would have to be overturned in less than three weeks. This is a highly unlikely scenario.
As for the apparent unwillingness of Republican members of Congress and the Senate to come out and recognize Biden’s win, even after Mitch McConnell did so on December 15th, stems from concerns with potential retribution from Trump, as well as his supporters. For these officials, the fact that the President garnered more than 73 million votes, more than any other President in the past, is not lost on them. There is fear that if they are seen as abandoning the President it could reflect on them and their chances for re-election among the Republican base. Furthermore, no one is certain about the President’s future plans.
In fact, these are all issues that the President is watching closely as well. The President has told close advisors that he feels betrayed, pointing to how many of those who most benefitted from his presidency are now the first to jump to support Biden. As such, the President is watching this closely to be able to track who is or is not loyal to him.
While his plans are consistently a moving target, as of late December his plans were focused on Georgia. The President views the runoff elections for the two Senate seats as key to his political future. Specifically, if the two Republicans win the elections, the President will not only feel personally vindicated, but also see this as a sign that the party has truly changed; not only along the lines he proffered over the last four years, but that it also has become more inclusive of mainstream America. Should this result be achieved, the next step would be for the President to support the candidacy of Lara Trump, the wife of his son Eric, for the Senate seat in North Carolina, currently held by Senator Richard Burr (R). Lara is a known commodity without any controversy in her background. Should she succeed, then the President would likely commit to being a candidate again in 2024.
That said, while the Georgia runoffs have been assessed as being securely Republican there are many concerning signs that could point to a different result. In particular, the Democrats are pursuing the same strategy they did in the Presidential election, i.e., they are pushing their supporters to vote early. While the systems in place are all controlled by the Republican party, such a tact makes it difficult for the Republicans to pursue Democrats.
Security Checklist for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Centers
COVID-19 vaccine distribution is underway throughout the United States. The vaccine has been highly anticipated this holiday season especially due to the recent uptick in COVID-19 infections in many parts of the country. The possibility of civil unrest at COVID-19 Vaccination Centers has become apparent. COVID-19 Vaccination Center Security Planning is becoming a priority throughout the nation.
Our security experts have put together a Security Checklist for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Centers based on our years of experience in logistical, supply chain and retail security planning and we are offering it a free download.
All indicators suggest that there are ample reasons to plan for security issues around COVID testing and vaccination sites. show that it is not if, but when the next violent protest will erupt. A little planning and preparation go a long way. Click the link below to download your copy of the Security Checklist for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Centers.
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