This bi-weekly Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) crime brief covers the two week period in New York City from October 5th through October 18th, 2020.

The brief compares 2020 year-to-date statistics with data collected from 2019 and compares the current two weeks of figures in the areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC and the security services that we provide. Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA.  The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.

As of October 18th, 2020, year-to-date statistics inform us that overall crime city-wide is down -1.13% across the five boroughs in the seven major crime categories when compared to data from 2019 at this time. However, most glaring are the 2020 stats tracking gun violence which has exploded off the charts with 1,235 shootings claiming 1,515 victims including 362 murders.  Compared with the same picture in time in 2019, gunfire is up +93% and New Yorkers victimized by gunfire has increased +100%.  Focusing on the last two weeks, the city experienced 63 shootings versus only 24 in 2019 representing a +163% hike.  The two week period also yielded 73 new gunshot victims including 9 that were murdered.  Digging down a little deeper into the shooting statistics over the last two weeks, we found that violent criminal’s “murder-hit-ratio” was a very low 12%.  Their lack of accuracy, of course, is no consolation prize but realistically the City could have easily had 60 murders over the two week period instead of 9 which is an alarming thought.  Further analysis revealed, over the course of 2020, gun-toting criminals have a 24% ”murder-hit-rate” when you take into account 362 people have lost their lives of the 1,515 gunshot victims.

 

Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to BRC’s Clients

Review and analysis of crime data generated between October 5th through October 18th, specific to our client base, was performed.  Below 59th Street, Manhattan South’s crime rate declined -16% in week one and -25% during week two when compared to the data from 2019.  The South recorded one murder and two shootings during the two week look-back.  Commercial burglaries continue to trouble the borough.  Street robberies and subway crime are also on the rise.

The 10th Precinct patrols north of the Chelsea Piers on the west side and this command has a crime decline of -33.5% over the last two weeks.  The 10th reported no gun violence and was down in all crime categories with the exception of street robberies which rose +200% in week two.

The vicinity of Columbus Circle south to West 44th Street is patrolled by the Midtown North Precinct.  Stats show that crime plummeted by -25% over the two weeks with no gun violence.  Commercial burglaries continue to plague this command as they rose once again by +40%.  

Above 59th street, the borough of Manhattan North recorded a +9% crime surge during the two week period under review including 2 murders, 8 shootings and 1 hate crime.  Commercial burglaries jumped +125% in week one and another +100% in week two.  The northern section of Manhattan also recorded 45 street robberies and 129 felony and misdemeanor assaults combined in week two.  

The 30th Precinct, covering Hamilton Heights in Harlem, experienced a steady decline in crime with a -15% cut in week one followed by a -14% slice in week two. No violence was recorded in week one however, in week two, despite the overall reduction of -14% there was 1 shooting reported and upticks in felony assaults +150% and burglaries +200% with 6 forcible street robberies taking place in seven days. 

The Upper East Side (UES) report: After a long string of increasing crime figures the 19th Precinct has gained control with back to back weeks of reduced crime data.  In week one the 19th recorded a -15% decline and another -17% in week two.  There was no gun violence spanning the two weeks but street robberies, burglaries and stolen autos did see a slight spike.

The 23rd Precinct covering the northern part of the UES recorded a decline of -7% in week one but it was erased in week two with a spike of +39%.  No gun violence occurred in either week but there was a significant increase in forcible street robberies +150% and felony assaults +250% in week two.

The Upper West Side (UWS) report: The 20th Precinct which patrols the southern portion of the UWS, reported crime going down by -31% over the two weeks combined.  No gun violence was reported during either of the two weeks under review but there was an increase in forcible street robberies +200% in week one and an alarming +400 spike in misdemeanor assaults in week two.  All other crime categories were down. 

The 24th Precinct had weeks of statistical conflict recording a -34% dip in week one followed by a +19 hike in week two.  No gun violence was reported in either week but the command continues to be plagued by stolen vehicles and cyber crime.

Across the Harlem River to the vicinity of Yankee Stadium in the Bronx the 44th Precinct realized a crime spike of +17% over the two week look-back period.  Gun violence made its mark in the 44th with four people shot in two separate shootings.  Other violence recorded by the 44th included 8 street robberies, 36 felony assaults and 32 misdemeanor assaults.

The 110th Precinct, covering southern Corona, watched crime plummet by -22% in two weeks.  In week one there was 1 shooting reported and a staggering +700% rise in commercial burglaries.  In week two the burglaries continued to go up +17% and stolen autos jumped by +500%.  

The 112th Precinct in Forest Hills also reported conflicting stories with a +50% hike in week one followed by a -27% reduction in week two.  There was no gun violence reported in either week however, in the first seven days significant increases in rapes, robberies, burglaries and felony assaults were responsible for the +50% mark.

Violence by Borough

The Bronx continues to be a dangerous part of New York City with 3 murders and 21 shootings occurring during the most recent two weeks.  Forcible street robberies also increased by +16% in week one.  For the year of 2020 the Bronx is +15% ahead of last year's pace in murders and +79% higher in shootings over 2019.

Brooklyn South recorded 7 shootings in 14 days with robberies, rapes and felony assaults going up as well.

Brooklyn North remains the deadliest borough leading the city with 88 murders and 349 shootings so far in 2020.  The past two weeks were no different as 2 murders and 13 shootings erupted to go along with 3 forcible rapes.  Year to date Brooklyn North has recorded +113% more gun violence than in 2019.

Manhattan South reported 1 murder and 2 shootings during the two week stretch.  The borough also recorded 29 street robberies which was +26% higher than 2019 at this time and a +46% uptick in sex crimes was also reported.

Manhattan North had a much busier two weeks than the southern portion with respect to violence.  The North recorded 2 murders, 8 shootings, 45 street robberies and 41 felony assaults over the last 14 days.  Manhattan North has totaled 50 murders and 142 shootings since January 1st.  

Queens North reported 3 shootings over the two weeks and also experienced a slight rise in felony assaults in each week.  

Queens South had its share of gun violence with 8 shootings reported which represents a jump of +267% from 2019 during the same two week time frame.  37 felony assaults and 25 street robberies were committed as well.  

Staten Island recorded no gun violence in week one however, in the second week, there was 1 shooting and 8 robberies which contributed to the +39% crime spike in the borough.

 

Crime Trends and Forecasts

Unfortunately, spikes in crime and violence continue to occur in New York City and in most major cities in America.  This trend will continue and we firmly expect it to ratchet upwards in New York City as the Presidential election nears and even post-election.  The NYPD has already begun to prepare for the expectation of riots and civil unrest by redesigning it’s staffing schedules, reassigning police personnel and deploying resources wherever they may be needed.  The NYPD recently faced a $1 Billion dollar budget defunding which, in-turn, triggered massive retirements to the tune of approximately 3,000 experienced officers over the last six months.  The Department remains committed to keeping New Yorkers safe and will utilize overtime to fill vacancies and meet their obligation to protect life and property.

 

Learn More About Strategic Response

Protests may not march past your physical building, but they might impact your supply chain or the ability for your employees to go to work when curfews are enacted. If your Business Continuity Plan does not account for social unrest, spend some time evaluating the potential impacts and creating contingency plans. 

All indicators show that it is not if but when the next violent protest will erupt. A little planning and preparation go a long way. Click the link below to learn more about Brosnan's Strategic Response Team.

Watch the Strategic Response Team Video and Download the Free Guide

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Michael Palladino

Written by Michael Palladino

Michael Palladino is a National Account Manager at Brosnan Risk Consultants and a retired NYPD Detective where he served New York City for 41 years. He spent most of his career in The Bronx’s 43rd and 52nd precincts. During his storied career Mr. Palladino also served as the President of the Detectives’ Endowment Association from 2004 to 2020 and as the President of New York State Association of PBA’s from 2007 to 2019. He is an expert in crime prevention and security services.

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