With the recent announcement by Ron DeSantis that he is seeking the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election, the campaign season is expected to take off with a vengeance. Former president Trump is expected to not only engage in direct attacks against his competitors, but also the indictments which are likely to unroll over the coming months. This is expected to stir not only debate, but possibly groups and supporters of the former president.
The likelihood of this becoming another 06 January is thought unlikely, but should the contest get close or heated, the possibility of potential unrest at campaign events or larger protests grows. Much of this may not only be instigated by political forces, but should the economy worsen over the coming period, this will likely be a strong impetus for anger and criticism to surface.
Companies should be mindful of these realities moving forward, and aware of what is happening not only in the nation, but also their own backyards. Below is an updated assessment of where things are trending politically, but as noted above, things can change quickly. Brosnan Risk Consultants is maintaining a watchful eye on these developments to ensure our clients are poised to make smart decisions to ensure their security before things devolve. Let us know how we can help your firm and people stay safe during these uncertain times.
Where are the Democratics heading in advance of the elections?
Overall there is a great deal of optimism in the Democratic party moving forward. In fact, it is at such a high level there is hope that the Party can retake the House and give the President a stronger mandate for a potential second term. The following are some insights from various elements of Party leadership:
With regard to the prospects of the election, Democratic strategists are aggressively pushing a Trifecta Strategy for 2024 – focused on the Party taking back the House. The strategy rests upon accomplishing three tasks:
The optimism driving these goals rests in the following:
How are the non-presidential battles shaping up?
Regarding the Senate, 33 seats will be contested in 2024. Of those, 23 are currently held by Democrats and 10 by Republicans.
Interestingly, if one looks back, the same Senate map produced a net of five Democratic pick-ups in the 2000 election, which Gore narrowly lost to Bush; six Democratic pick-ups in 2006, allowing Democrats to retake the Senate; and two more in 2012.
As such, for Democratic leaders, they believe if they continue to have a good election year in 2023, they will not only possibly take the House, but also a strong chance at holding the Senate.
Regarding the House, there are 18 seats held by Republicans that Biden won in 2020, and in a presidential election year with higher Democratic turnout. The assessment is with a stronger Democratic turnout in 2024, Democrats stand a good chance at winning a lot of these seats back - needing only five to take the lead.
In addition, there are more than three times as many seats up for grabs in “crossover districts,” i.e. seats that vote for one party for House and the other party for president.
The campaign also argues there are significant opportunities to grow Democratic support, as in 2022, Democrats won elections despite a turnout environment that was more Republican-centric than in 2020.
They noted that under the Biden Administration, Democrats have gained support from Republican and independent swing voters who had not previously voted for Democrats.
In addition, the Party intends to focus on the following key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina.
Where are the Republicans headed moving forward?
With the debt ceiling fight and the upcoming appropriation bills consuming nearly all the focus in Congress, some Republican members have floated internally the idea of having the federal government use unspent COVID funds to buy three more weeks of negotiations. Speaker McCarthy (R-CA) has been less inclined to support this because he would like to keep the issue of unspent COVID funds as a negotiation issue, and also use the imminent deadline to force the White House to act.
Separately, Representative Michael McCaul (R-TX) genuinely does not want to start the precedent of holding Secretary of State Antony Blinken in contempt for the State Department’s refusal to comply with the subpoena for the dissent cable on Afghanistan. However, he has also become personally frustrated by the situation and has been encouraged by hardliners to keep pushing the issue to the point of action.
In looking at the various candidates for the Republican nomination, the following steps are slated to occur, or have already occurred:
As for the DeSantis campaign, there has already been some issues. Rivalries have developed between those personally close to the Governor, who are likely to be involved in the campaign itself - and newcomers to his political organization - like GOP strategist Jeff Roe, who is engaged in his super PAC. Roe has reportedly attempted to have DeSantis’ likely campaign manager fired. In turn, those close to DeSantis are reportedly responded by asking donors to tell DeSantis to shake up his super PAC operation to undermine Roe’s position.
As for former president Trump, he and his campaign team are working with networks from the mainstream media to schedule more interviews and town hall meetings. They assessed his last town hall with CNN as highly successful – looking to repeat this formula to provide additional support to him and his campaign. Again, Trump is all about the polls and he will continue to do things that support his growing numbers.