Intelligence as a Service is one of the primary Security Services that we offer our clients at Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC). The Bi-Weekly Brosnan NYC Crime Brief is a general version of the type of Intelligence as Service report that we offer to our clients throughout the United States and is part of the full Security Services offerings available through Brosnan Risk Consultants. This crime brief covers the two-week period in New York City from December 14th through December 27th, 2020.
The brief also reflects a limited amount of year-end 2020 violent crime data obtained from the NYPD.
The brief compares 2020 year-to-date statistics with figures collected from 2019 and compares the current two weeks of data in areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC. Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
As of December 27th, 2020, year-to-date figures indicate overall crime in the seven major crime categories declined by –0.89% across the five boroughs when compared to figures released from 2019. Over the fourteen-day period, the NYPD recorded 15 homicides resulting from 50 separate shooting incidents. Commercial burglaries jumped +55%, stolen autos rose +79% and rapes increased by +19% while felony assaults and robberies fell compared with 2019 numbers.
A limited amount of year-end 2020 data, obtained from the NYPD, paints a picture of rising violence to the tune of +97% more shootings than 2019 and a homicide rate +41% larger than last year with 462 murders recorded versus 319. All told, the City of New York experienced 1,531 incidents of gun fire striking 1,868 victims for the year 2020.
If you are operating a business in New York City, it goes without saying that developing a commercial burglary prevention strategy should be high on your list for 2021. In simplest terms, here are some tactics to consider:
- Make sure your locks and roll down doors are in good working order. And remember - locks must be engaged to work.
- Greet every person entering your business. People are less likely to steal when they know you are paying attention.
- Having a good retail security plan in place is imperative. Establish sound security policies & procedures. Train and couch your staff often.
- Buy good locks, safes, and alarm systems. You get what you pay for. Do your research.
- Hire the best security guard company that you can find. Establish a plan for evaluating security firm candidates. Do they have a good reputation? Do they have a proven track record?
Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to Brosnan's Clients
Crime data below 59th Street in Manhattan was examined over the two-week period and revealed a –60% reduction in overall crime. One shooting, injuring two people, was reported but the crime story below 59th street revolves around commercial burglaries which jumped an additional +172% with 95 new cases in the last fourteen days. Manhattan South borough ended 2020 with significant hikes in murders, shootings, commercial burglaries and stolen cars.
Looking at specific commands below 59th street, the 1st Precinct, covering the Seaport vicinity, recorded a –79% drop in reported crime during the last two weeks compared with 2019 figures. No gun violence was reported in either week, however the 1st experienced increases in rapes, robberies and commercial burglaries despite the recorded dip in overall crime. The 1st Precinct ended 2020 with 1 homicide which is what it recorded in 2019 and 3 shootings which is up from just 1 in 2019.
The 10th Precinct had two weeks of a “roller coaster ride” recording a +43% hike in week one and a –48% decline in week two. The +43% hike in week one was built around significant jumps in burglaries, robberies and felony assaults. During the second week under review the 10th was down in all crime categories except for minor assaults and burglaries. At year’s end, the 10th command tallied 3 homicides versus zero in 2019.
Midtown Precinct North recorded a –43% decline combined over the two-week time frame. No gun violence was reported and crime fell in most categories except for robberies and burglaries. As of December 31st, Midtown North command recorded 3 homicides and 2 shootings for 2020, up from 2019 figures.
Above 59th street in Manhattan crime declined by –31% during the last fourteen days. Unlike the southern portion of Manhattan, the North experienced 7 shootings causing 2 murders and injuring 6 others. Despite the overall –31% crime drop the borough recorded increases in rapes, burglaries and stolen vehicles over the two-week frame. By year’s end, Manhattan North recorded a +56% hike in homicides and a +75% spike in gunfire compared with 2019 data.
The 30th Precinct recorded conflicting weeks with a decline of –28% in week one followed by a spike of +58% in week two. There was a shooting reported in each week and a significant hike in felony assaults +300%, burglaries +100%, grand larcenies +167% and petit larcenies +143% during week two. By year’s end, the 30th equaled their 2019 homicide count with 4 murders and 11 shootings which was +57% higher than the previous year.
The Upper East Side (UES) data recorded in the 19th Precinct over the last fourteen days indicates that overall crime declined by –66%. The 19th recorded no gun violence and reductions in most crime categories except street robberies which jumped +400% and commercial burglaries +75%. For the year, this command reported significant hikes in robberies, burglaries and stolen vehicles compared with last year’s data. One homicide and a shooting occurred in the 19th Precinct in 2020.
The 23rd Precinct covering the northern end of the UES experienced a “tale-of-two-weeks" recording an increase of +77% in week one followed by a –38% dip in week two. The +77% hike was caused by 2 acts of gunfire injuring 3 people and sharp jumps in six of the seven major crime categories. In week two the command recorded 1 homicide resulting from gunfire but all other crime categories were down compared with 2019 data. For the calendar year 2020, the 23rd Precinct had an alarming hike of +350% in murders and +68% more shootings than 2019.
The Upper West Side (UWS) is covered by the 20th and 24th Precincts. The 20th reduced crime by –128% over the last fourteen days. No gun violence was reported during the two-week time frame and all crime categories were down. The 2020 achilles heel for the 20th Precinct has been commercial burglaries which were up +83% versus 2019. The command also recorded 1 homicide and 3 shootings for the year.
The 24th command also reduced crime significantly over the two-week period by –44% followed by –20% respectively. During week two, despite the –20 cut in overall crime, the 24th recorded a +275% jump in felony and misdemeanor assaults combined and 7 new commercial burglary cases. Gun violence was non-existent over the last fourteen days however, the 24th Precinct, much like its neighboring command-23rd, recorded alarming hikes in murders +300% and shootings +800% for the 2020 year compared to 2019’s statistics.
Crossing into the Bronx near Yankee Stadium, the 44th Precinct had a net increase of +21% in overall crime over the two-week time frame. The hike was rooted in notable spikes in rapes, robberies, felony assaults, burglaries and stolen autos. In week two, the 44th recorded 1 shooting incident. By year’s end, the 44th showed increases in homicides +75% and acts of gunfire +66% compared with final figures in 2019.
Heading into Queens, the 110th command reduced crime by –4% in week one and crime jumped +22% the following week. During week two, rapes, felony assaults and stolen vehicles increased and 1 homicide caused by gunfire was reported. For the year 2020, homicides and shootings were up by +100% and +133% respectively versus 2019’s data.
The 112th Precinct, covering Forest Hills, reported skyrocketing crime over the two-week lookback with hikes of +46% and +33%. Despite the rate increases, robberies and rapes fell but burglaries, felony assaults, grand larcenies and petit larcenies contributed to the increase. Gunplay was non-existent during 2020 in the 112th command but robberies +27%, burglaries +149% and grand larceny auto +74% made their marks.
Brosnan Security Watch List:
The 114th Precinct in Astoria and Manhattan’s Midtown South command remain under watch by BRC. The 114th command has gained some control over the last two weeks reducing crime by –32%. Most crime categories were down except for commercial burglaries, petit larcenies and stolen cars. What originally placed this generally quiet neighborhood on our watch list was the unnerving spike in murders +250%, shootings +60% and burglaries +38% over the course of 2020.
The Midtown South Precinct (MTS) did reduce crime by –60% in the last fourteen days however, commercial burglaries continue to roll on which is of concern to Brosnan and our clientele. For the year, commercial burglaries are up +99% compared to 2019 with 350 cases reported.
Borough Violence Report:
The Bronx continued its run of violence as gunfire erupted 14 times during the two-week lookback causing 3 homicides and wounding 11 other people. The Bronx topped all boroughs with 106 murders for 2020. Felony assaults, rapes and robberies also increased over the two-week span.
Brooklyn South exploded as well over the two weeks with 4 murders resulting from 8 acts of gunfire. For the year, homicides and shootings were up +94% and +152% respectively.
Brooklyn North violence was off the charts in the last fourteen days totaling 12 shooting events causing two deaths and injuring twelve others. Year to date the borough of Brooklyn North is second to only the Bronx in murders with 102 which represents +57% more than 2019’s count. Felony assaults and robberies fell during the stretch.
Manhattan South recorded 1 shooting injuring two people. Rapes rose while felony assaults and robberies dipped.
Manhattan North experienced 7 shootings causing the demise of 2 Manhattanites. Overall, rapes, felony and misdemeanor assaults and robberies declined over the two-week span. For the year 2020, homicides and gunfire rose +57% and +75% respectively compared with 2019’s figures.
In Queens South, 5 shootings erupted causing one death and injuring four others. Three rapes were reported, up from 2019’s data while felony assaults and robberies slid slightly. Year-end 2020 stats indicate murder in Queens South had a +5% hike while shootings rose +112%.
Queens North reported 1 homicide by gunfire. Felony assaults had a minor uptick in both weeks while robberies and rapes declined slightly. Murder and shootings for the 2020 year escalated by +12% and +46%.
Staten Island recorded 2 murders and 2 shootings over the span. Rapes and felony assaults were unchanged compared with figures from 2019 while robberies declined. Staten Island was unusually prone to violence in 2020 recording +43% more murders and +78% more gunfire.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
Crime and violence continue to trend in the wrong direction with all indications the pendulum will remain moving in that direction until further notice. This trend is not restricted to just New York City. Other major American cities like Detroit, Baltimore, Los Angeles and Chicago are also dealing with rising-out of-control violence. As 2020 comes to an end, St. Louis appears to have the highest “per-capita” violent crime rate recording 250 murders and 2,800 shootings with approximately 2.2 million people. Political events like the Georgia senate run-off on January 5th and the electoral college certification vote on January 6th could trigger further violence and civil unrest which could carry us well into 2021.
Security Checklist for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Centers
As the new COVID-19 vaccines continue to be distributed throughout the United States during the first part of the year, the possibility of violent acts and civil unrest at COVID-19 Vaccination Centers continues to be a threat. COVID-19 Vaccination Center Security Planning is quickly becoming a priority throughout the nation. Our security experts have put together a Security Checklist for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Centers based on our years of experience in logistical, supply chain and retail security planning and we are offering it a free download.
All indicators suggest that there are ample reasons to plan for security issues around COVID testing and vaccination sites. Having a thoughtful plan in place can help prevent unwanted situations. Click the link below to download your copy of the Security Checklist for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Centers.
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