Threat Intelligence as a Services are one of the many Security Services that we offer our clients at Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC). The Bi-Weekly Brosnan NYC Crime Brief is a great example of the type of Intelligence as a Service reports that we offer to our clients throughout the United States. This NYC Crime Brief compares 2021 statistics from January 1st through January 10th to data collected during the same time frame from 2020. BRC tailors the brief to areas of New York City specific to our business interests to inform and assist our clients in security planning.
Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
As of January 10th, 2021, year-to-date figures reflect crime being down -17% overall when compared to the first ten days of 2020 in the seven major crime categories across the five boroughs. As we forecasted, the violence that erupted during 2020 continues this year as figures indicate the murder rate is already up +125% over last year at this time with 9 fresh homicides and 31 shooting incidents. Commercial burglaries and grand larceny-autos continue to spike in precincts throughout the City rising 2% and 23% respectively. On a good note, rapes, robberies, felony, and misdemeanor assaults recorded fewer cases in the first ten days of the year.
A limited amount of year-end 2020 data, obtained from the NYPD, paints a picture of rising violence to the tune of +97% more shootings than 2019 and a homicide rate +41% larger than last year with 462 murders recorded versus 319. All told, the City of New York experienced 1,531 incidents of gun fire striking 1,868 victims for the year 2020.
If you are operating a business in New York City, developing and implementing a retail loss prevention strategy should be high on your list of priorities for 2021. Even if you have a strategy in place, so much has changed throughout the City in the past year, that it may make sense to re-evaluate all security strategies and tactics. Here are some things for NYC retail businesses to consider:
- Make sure your locks and roll down doors are in good working order. And remember - locks must be engaged to work.
- Greet every person entering your business. People are less likely to steal when they know you are paying attention.
- Having a good retail security plan in place is imperative. Establish sound security policies & procedures. Train and coach your staff often.
- Install locks, safes, and alarm systems from trusted vendors and manufacturers. Remember: You get what you pay for. Do your research. (If you need help, contact a trusted NYC security guard company.)
- Hire the best security guard company that you can find. Establish a plan for evaluating security firm candidates. Do they have a good reputation? Do they have a proven track record? Can they meet your needs at a fair price?
Remember that reputation is everything in New York City. Even hiring the best marketing company in New York won't help a business that has developed a reputation for not being a safe place to visit.
Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to Brosnan's Clients
Current ten-day data was reviewed in Manhattan, below 59th Street, and revealed overall crime being reduced by –37%. No gun violence was reported in Manhattan South, however one homicide was committed by means other than a firearm. Rapes, robberies and identification fraud cases were down compared with the 2020 figures. Commercial burglaries which haunted the area below 59th street last year continue to trend that way in 2021. Felony assaults jumped +19% and one hate crime was reported in the 13th Precinct.
Patrolling SOHO, Tribeca and the South Street Seaport, the 1st Precinct reports that overall crime is down –8% year to date, recording drops in all categories except commercial burglaries with six new incidents in ten days.
The 10th Precinct which covers the west side near Chelsea Piers reports a rise in crime by +13% over 2020 figures so far. No gun violence occurred in this command during the ten-day stretch and all crime categories were reduced except petit larcenies which rose by +12% with 19 new incidents reported. Commercial burglaries dipped by –20% which is encouraging news when compared with last year's numbers.
The Midtown Precinct North (MTN) recorded a –56% drop off in overall crime being down in all categories except commercial burglaries which surged +17% for the ten-day lookback. One homicide was reported but it wasn’t caused by gun violence.
Above 59th Street, crime and violence data differs when compared with Manhattan South. “The North” did reduce overall crime by –20%, however four people were injured by early-year gunfire, none of whom succumb to their injuries. Felony assaults +12%, commercial burglaries +16% and stolen autos +39% were recorded higher than 2020 numbers.
In Hamilton Heights, the 30th Precinct reduced their crime totals by –13% for the first ten days of the year. Commercial burglaries +250%, grand larcenies +25% and one shooting prevented the 30th from driving down crime even further.
Data examined from precincts patrolling the Upper East Side (UES) indicates overall crime was reduced in the 19th Precinct by –37% while the 23rd command recorded a zero change in stats from 2020. Despite the 19th's decrease in overall crime figures, burglary incidents jumped off the page with a whopping +300% surge compared with 2020 figures during the first ten days of the year. Detectives at the 19th Precinct confirmed the stats and believe the facts behind the spike can be correlated to the Covid-19 virus. This time last year the virus had yet to arrive and residences and businesses were occupied and less vulnerable compared with post-virus crime conditions. One shooting incident was reported and felony assaults were up +40%.
The 23rd Precinct patrolling the upper half of the UES recorded 1 shooting, 2 rapes and 14 felony assaults. All other crime categories were down during the ten day stretch.
On the Upper West Side (UWS) the 20th Precinct reduced crime by –20% with no acts of gunfire reported. All crime categories were down but a spike in felony and misdemeanor assaults prevented the 20th from driving crime figures down further.
The 24th Precinct reported a stellar –52% drop in overall crime for the ten-day period with only 14 total crimes recorded in the command versus 29 last year.
Moving into the Bronx near Yankee Stadium, the 44th Precinct reported a +9% rise in overall crime which included 2 shootings and hikes in felony assaults +26% and grand larcenies +77%.
The 110th Precinct, covering southern Corona, reduced crime in the first ten days of 2021 by –30% overall. Two rapes were reported and minor assaults surged +92% but all other categories dipped below last year’s figures.
The 112th Precinct in Forest Hills recorded the exact number of crimes this year as last year during the first ten days, which was eighteen. Street robberies and petit larcenies were the only crimes that rose slightly, and 1 hate crime was recorded.
Brosnan Security Watch List:
Brosnan continues to monitor activity in the 114th Precinct in Astoria, Queens and Manhattan’s Midtown Precinct South (MTS) for the benefit of our clients. So far this year the 114th Precinct reports a +10% increase in crime with 56 crimes reported in the seven major categories compared with only 51 last year in the same ten-day period. One shooting was recorded in the 114th with significant hikes in rapes +200%, burglaries +200% and robberies +17% in ten days.
Midtown Precinct South (MTS) statistics tell us the command is down –31% so far this year. What landed MTS on our watch list continues to occur as commercial burglaries rose again by +100% compared with 2020 figures. Like the condition going on in the 19th Precinct, MTS attributes the spike in commercial break-ins to the COVID-19 virus which had no bearing on crime statistics last year at this time. During the first three months of 2020 businesses were occupied, functioning and less susceptible to break-ins, therefore, we forecast commercial burglaries to continue to trend upwards until the City fully reopens. No gun violence was reported by MTS, however, an alarming amount of street robberies +133%, felony assaults +67% and stolen vehicles +100% were recorded during just a ten-day stretch. As a result, MTS remains on our watch list.
Borough Violence Report:
Gun violence in the Bronx picked up where it left off from 2020 and started the new year with 3 murders and 10 shooting incidents in the first ten days. Rapes, robberies and felony assaults nosedived.
Brooklyn South borough recorded 2 new acts of gunfire in the first ten days injuring two which was actually –60% less than its 2020 start. Rapes were up +25% with 5 being reported compared with 4 last year and the borough recorded declines in all other categories involving violence.
Brooklyn North was quite a different story, keeping pace with the Bronx, recording 3 homicides after 7 shootings. All other violent crimes took a holiday as of January 10th.
Manhattan South borough recorded its first homicide which wasn’t attributed to gunfire, matching the stats from the first ten days last year. Rapes, robberies and minor assaults fell but felony assaults recorded an uptick by +18%.
The northern part of Manhattan reported 4 acts of gunfire injuring 4 with no deaths recorded. Similar to Manhattan South, rapes, robberies and misdemeanor assaults fell, but felony assaults rose slightly.
Queens South erupted with gunfire recording 8 injuries from 5 separate shooting incidents causing 1 homicide. Rapes remained unchanged during the ten day stretch and felony assaults showed a +2% uptick compared with 2020 figures at this time.
Queens North had its share of new-year gunfire with 3 fresh cases causing injuries to 4 individuals and 1 murder. Rapes climbed +14% while other violent categories dipped during the recorded period.
Staten Island commenced 2021 quietly with no gun violence being reported and declines in all other violent crime categories.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
Anxiety over the pandemic, the vaccine distribution security issues and tangles, the controversy surrounding the election results and the upcoming inauguration are the topics consuming the headlines. The growing voice of socialism threatens our democracy, creating a simmering pot and causing a level of uncertainty and civility that is “fragile”. Missing from the headlines is the out-of-control violence that has taken over our city, mirroring the bad-old-days of the seventies, eighties and nineties when crime ruled and the innocent coward behind locked doors.
The 2021 legislative session has opened in Albany and sources have informed Brosnan that New York Lawmakers continue to introduce Criminal Justice Reform legislation to further empower criminals and restrict police from protecting and defending the innocent law-abiding New Yorker. That said, crime trends will continue to move in the same direction. If the first ten days of this year are a measuring stick for gun-violence, then 2021 violence is forecast to surpass the previous year. Lastly, foreign based terrorists have been conspicuously quiet and there should be little doubt that our enemies from afar are watching with an opportunistic eye.
What is Threat Intelligence as a Service?
Sometimes referred to as a threat intelligence report, a strategic intelligence report is used to aggregate information into actionable data and adversary understanding. Brosnan Risk Consultants specializes in intelligence-driven, integrated risk management solutions that enable national and global organizations to operate throughout the world with confidence. Our world-class security services, threat intelligence products, innovative security technologies, and emergency response services help organizations to mitigate risk and protect their customers, employees, and assets.
Our Threat Intelligence as a Service products can enable your organization to make operational, strategic, and/or tactical decisions by providing you with actionable data that has a high degree of relevancy and probability. This data often used to help steer our client’s out of harm’s way and protect their brands’ reputation.
Want to see how our Intelligence as a Service products can help your organization? Click the link below to learn how to get your custom Intelligence Report.
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