The Bi-Weekly Brosnan NYC Crime Brief is a great example of the type of Intelligence as a Service reports that we offer to our clients throughout the United States. At Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC), we believe that access to actionable intelligence is an integral cornerstone of a good security plan. This NYC Crime Brief covers the two-week period in New York City from January 11th, through January 24th, 2021.
The brief compares 2021 year-to-date statistics with figures collected from 2020 and compares the current two weeks of data gathered in areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC.
Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
As of January 24th, 2021, year-to-date crime statistics tell us that across the five boroughs overall crime in the seven major crime categories is –20% lower than 2020 at this point in time. Reflecting back to this date in 2020, influencing national events affecting crime and civil unrest, like COVID-19 and George Floyd, had not yet occurred. Early data from 2021 however, suggests that violence and gunfire in the five boroughs has picked up where it left off from the post-COVID-post-Floyd period of 2020.
Over the last 14 days the City experienced 31 shooting incidents bringing its year-to-date total to 63 which represents a +17% hike from 2020 resulting in 11 murders. On a positive note, rapes, robberies, burglaries and felony assaults fell, however stolen autos recorded an increase by +31% during the two-week lookback. The advent of COVID-19 in 2020 created a flood of commercial burglaries in New York City due to the closure of businesses and restaurants and until the City reopens to some degree of normalcy, we expect commercial break-ins to be problematic for the NYPD.
Developing and implementing a retail loss prevention strategy should be a key component of all retail operations in NYC this year. Establishing smart security policies & procedures, training and coaching staff to follow security protocols, and contracting a trusted NYC security guard company should all be considered and taken seriously throughout 2021.
It also may be time to consider some small capital improvements like locks, safes, rolling gates and alarm systems from trusted vendors and manufacturers.
Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to Brosnan's Clients
Manhattan South statistics below 59th Street were examined and informs us that overall crime was reduced by –72% combined over the last 14 days. The South recorded one shooting which resulted in a homicide. Rapes, robberies and even commercial burglaries diminished with only stolen vehicles registering a hike of +13%.
The 1st Police Precinct covering the lower end of Manhattan, including the South Street Seaport, recorded a drop in crime by –119% combined compared with this time last year. No gun violence was reported and the command was down in all crime categories.
The 10th Precinct, covering the West Side near Chelsea Piers, also reduced crime by –77% over the last 14 days. Despite the plunge, 12 commercial burglaries were reported (+600%) and upticks in petit larcenies and minor assaults were recorded.
Midtown Precinct North (MTN) had a record reduction of –103% over the 14 days with no gunfire being reported. MTN reduced crime in all categories except for minor hikes in felony and misdemeanor assaults.
Looking north, above 59th street, crime reductions occurred at a much lower rate than the southern portion of the borough enjoyed. Manhattan North recorded a –49% drop over the two-week lookback but violence erupted causing 2 homicides by gunfire and a third murder which was not gun related. Most of the gun violence was committed in the 25th and 32nd Precincts. The northern part of the borough recorded drops in most crime categories except stolen vehicles, which rose +114% over last year so far.
In Hamilton Heights, the 30th Precinct recorded only 31 crimes over the 14-day span which is an overall reduction of –33% from 2020 figures at this time.
The Upper East Side (UES) enjoyed reductions in crime by the 19th and 23rd Precincts. The 19th sported a –66% dip in recorded crimes over the two-week span with no gun-related violence however, burglaries rose by +40% over last year’s figures, most likely Covid related. Hidden in the stats of the 19th is the well-publicized “unprovoked” subway assault captured on video showing an individual being shoved into an oncoming train at the 59th street station. The victim was seriously injured and the suspect was quickly arrested on the scene by patrol officers.
The 23rd Precinct recorded –31% fewer crimes with no gun violence. The 23rd reduced crime in all categories except felony and misdemeanor assaults, which Detective Squad personnel attribute to the activity of the homeless population to some degree.
Over on the Upper West Side (UWS), the 20th Precinct reduced crime by –74% over the two-week period with no gun-related violence recorded. Six commercial burglaries and 30 petit larcenies kept officers from the 20th busy over the last 14 days.
The 24th command recorded a –70% crime reduction with no violence and only sixteen crimes reported over the last seven days.
Moving north east into the Bronx the 44th Precinct, near Yankee Stadium, recorded a different crime picture with a net gain in crime of +42% over the last fourteen days. Although no gunfire erupted, hikes in rapes, robberies, felony assaults, grand larcenies and stolen cars were responsible for the crime rate jump. Year-to-date, the 44th is up +13% in shootings from the same date in 2020.
Across the RFK bridge into South Corona, Queens the 110th Precinct reduced crime by –33% in total. One shooting was reported causing a non-life-threatening injury and despite the recorded reduction in overall crime the 110th showed minor upticks in rapes, robberies, burglaries and assaults.
In Forest Hills, the 112th Precinct reduced crime by –21% in week one and recorded a +50% hike the following seven days. Records indicate that street robberies, grand larcenies and petit larcenies were responsible for the weekly hike.
Brosnan Security Watch List:
The 114th Precinct in Astoria and the Midtown Precinct South (MTS) remain on our watch list. The 114th reduced overall crime in week one by –31% with no gun related violence. The command was down in most crime categories however, two rapes were reported bringing the monthly total to five which is +400% higher than last January and has Precinct Detectives concerned. The following week crime jumped by +24% with thirty-one crimes reported in the seven major categories. The spurt is attributed to increases in recorded robberies, felony assaults, commercial burglaries, petit larcenies and housing authority crimes.
Midtown Precinct South (MTS) reported fifty-four major crimes during the first week which represents a jump of +13% from last year between January 11th and the 17th. No gun violence occurred, however street robberies increased by +233%, felony assaults rose +350%, commercial burglaries jumped +60% and misdemeanor assaults were +114% higher. The following week this command recorded an additional thirty-one major crimes with hikes in rapes, robberies, felony and misdemeanor assaults over seven days. Once again, no gun-related violence was reported. Detectives at MTS Squad acknowledged the increased case load and are working with officers on patrol to mitigate.
Borough Violence Report:
The borough of the Bronx is currently +31% ahead of last year’s gun violence at this time with 21 incidents of gunfire. Over the last fourteen days eleven shootings caused three murders while rapes, robberies and felony assaults also increased.
Brooklyn South recorded 4 shootings over the two-week span causing injuries to four victims and raising the shooting total to six for the year. Rapes and robberies fell while felony and minor assaults rose dramatically with 118 cases reported over the last seven days.
Brooklyn North exploded with gun related violence recording 9 shootings causing countless injuries and 2 homicides. Year-to-date, Brooklyn North is outpacing its 2020 shooting figures by +33% so far. In other categories of violence, the borough was down except for rapes which rose +25%.
Manhattan South borough recorded one shooting incident causing a homicide and all other violent crime categories were down except felony assaults which rose by +21% due to 34 newly reported cases in the first week.
Manhattan North gun violence is keeping pace thus far with 2020 figures. Over the last fourteen days, the northern part of Manhattan recorded 2 homicides caused by gunfire and a third murder, unrelated to gunfire. Two rapes were reported during the first seven days under review, however, the following week the North was down in all categories of violence.
Queens South violence is also keeping pace with 2020 figures from January. Two shootings and one homicide were reported bringing the year-to-date total to 7 acts of gunfire. Rapes, robberies and felony assaults fell in both weeks.
Queens North experienced only one shooting event over the two-week span but is +100% higher in shootings year-to-date compared to last. Rapes and felony assaults rose significantly during the two-week stretch.
Staten Island crime went down –29% during the first week despite one gun-related homicide being recorded. The following seven days crime jumped +24% with no gun violence reported. An increase in felony assaults during week two were responsible for the +24 hike while all other crimes of violence fell.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
Tracking New York City 2021 crime trends so far reveals that violence remains problematic and out of control while other crime categories appear somewhat manageable right now. What remains to be seen is the impact the virus vaccine will have on New Yorkers and if the City can reopen and return to some degree of normalcy. There are still concerns over vaccine distribution center security and keeping people safe. Once the City reopens there will be the expectation of a long-awaited repopulation of the City via commuters, tourism and the resurrection of the mass transit system. All of which could end up being a dream come true for career criminals encouraged and emboldened by the revolving door of New York State’s broken Criminal Justice System.
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