The Bi-Weekly Brosnan NYC Crime Brief is a great example of the type of Intelligence as a Service reports that we offer to our clients throughout the United States. At Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC), we believe that access to actionable intelligence is an integral cornerstone of a good security plan. This crime brief covers the two-week period in New York City from January 25th through February 7th, 2021, and compares 2021 year-to-date statistics with figures collected from 2020 and compares the current two weeks of data gathered in areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC.
Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
As of February 7th, 2021, year-to-date figures indicate that overall crime in New York City is down -24% in the seven major categories compared with the same time frame in 2020. The reduction is not surprising given the partnership between the work of the NYPD and the significance of an inclement winter and freezing temperatures, which was not the case last year.
Despite an overall reduced crime rate, violence in the City remains the story with 12 homicides and 33 shootings dominating the statistics over the last two weeks. Year-to-date, 33 murders and 96 shootings have occurred along with countless acts of random violence and stabbings in the subway system despite ridership being down 80%.
With burglaries up significantly for the year, retail businesses in NYC could gain a great advantage by having a retail loss prevention strategy in place. Implimenting security policies and procedures, training and coaching staff to follow security protocols, and contracting the best security guard company in NYC that you can find should all be considered throughout the rest of the year.
Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to Brosnan's Clients
Data examined over the last two weeks reveals that below 59th street in Manhattan South crime in the City’s housing projects is up significantly despite the borough recording crime rate drops of –46% and –60% respectively. During week two under review one shooting was reported and rapes rose by +25% with all other crime categories being down.
The 1st Precinct covering lower Manhattan, including the Seaport and Wall Street, enjoyed two quiet weeks with reductions of –66% and –68%. No gun violence occurred and crime was down in all categories.
The 10th Precinct on the west side of Manhattan also posted two weeks of lower crime rates by –55% and –59% respectively with no gun violence. The 10th was hit hard by commercial burglaries over the two-week period and year-to-date burglaries are up +367% with 28 incidents since January 1st.
The Midtown North command recorded two more weeks of fewer crimes compared with 2020 stats by –30% and –77% respectively. Commercial burglaries were up +500% in week one but all other crime categories dipped.
Above 59th street overall crime dropped -58% combined however, violence erupted in Manhattan North with 5 shootings and 1 homicide being logged during the two weeks. Year-to date, 4 murders and 12 shootings have happened in the borough. Worth mentioning, in week one, Manhattan North reported 2 rapes, 42 street robberies (+14%), 59 felony assaults (+28%) and increases in transit and housing crime by +50% and +71% respectively.
Looking at the 30th Precinct in Hamilton Heights, crime rose +33% in week one with hikes in felony assaults (+50%), burglaries (+200%) and grand larcenies (+40%) supporting the increase. The following week crime dropped by –50% with no gun violence in either week, however catching the eye of 30th precinct investigators is the sharp rise in commercial burglaries which were up +150% for the week and +75% year-to-date.
The lower portion of the Upper East Side (UES) is patrolled by the 19th Precinct which recorded a combined drop in crime by –100%. The 19th has successfully addressed commercial burglaries thus far this year by sporting –63% fewer cases. All other categories are under control with a minor uptick in stolen vehicles.
The 23rd Precinct, patrolling the upper end of the UES, reported a +24% hike in week one followed by a –6% drop the following week. Week one’s hike was attributed to 1 homicide, 2 shootings and spikes in street robberies, felony assaults, petit larcenies and housing authority crime. Despite week two’s overall drop in crime the command recorded 1 shooting and significant increases in robberies and felony assaults. On a positive note, the 23rd has reduced commercial burglaries by –60% year-to-date.
The 20th and 24th Precincts cover the Upper West Side (UWS) of Manhattan. The 20th reported dips of –38% and –19% during the two-week period under review with no gun violence. Felony assaults slightly rose in week one while commercial burglaries and minor assaults jumped up during week two. Year to date the 20th Precinct is struggling with burglaries, felony assaults and stolen cars being up.
The 24th command sported a –50% crime rate drop over the two weeks combined with no gun violence recorded. Housing crime is on the rise in this command and others in the City. Felony assaults rose +67% during week two and year-to-date felony assaults are up +30%.
In the vicinity of Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, the 44th Precinct reflects the City’s overall crime picture with violence erupting despite reduced overall crime data. During the two-week review period the 44th recorded 2 shootings, 3 rapes and housing crime increased by +200%. Thirty new petit larceny complaints were reported in the last seven days.
Moving into the southern portion of Corona, Queens the 110th Precinct reported that crime dropped –54% over the two weeks combined with no gun violence. Statistics from the 110th revealed crime being down in all categories with the exception of commercial burglaries increasing +20% in week one and grand larcenies spiking +63% the following week.
In Forest Hills the 112th Command recorded conflicting weeks with crime going down –35% in week one and rising +11% the following week. In week one, despite recording a –35% overall drop-off compared with 2020, significant hikes were reported in misdemeanor assaults (+300%), stolen autos (+200%) and petit larcenies (+95%). The following week, jumps in grand larcenies, petit larcenies and misdemeanor assaults carried the +11% weekly increase.
Brosnan Security Watch List:
We continue to monitor crime data from commands with potential business interests to BRC in Manhattan and Queens. A two-week lookback of data from the Midtown South Precinct (MTS) indicates crime tailed off –54% combined, however MTS detectives experienced a rise in their investigative case load due to felony assaults spiking by +240% weekly. Additionally, new Investigations were launched into one shooting, a rape and 6 robberies that were reported over the last 14 days. On a positive note, commercial burglaries were reduced by –25%.
The 114th Precinct in Astoria dropped overall crime by –17% during the two-week period, however some categories did record increases. During week one, complaints alleging felony assaults (+17%), burglaries (+100%) and housing authority crime (+400%) rose compared with the same seven-day period last year. The following week, 1 shooting and a rape were reported and are under investigation by precinct detectives. Additionally, petit larceny complaints were up +46% and commercial burglaries spiked +133% for the week and are up +100% year-to-date.
Borough Violence Report:
The Bronx recorded 8 shootings resulting in 4 new murders over the last seven days surpassing last year’s homicide figure by +300%. Year-to-date the Bronx is +48% ahead of last year's pace with 31 shootings. Sex related crimes rose +42% over the last seven days and the borough is down in all other violence related crime categories.
Brooklyn South recorded 1 shooting over the last seven days and has 10 incidents year-to-date which is +43% higher than last year at this point in time. The borough reported 59 new felony assault complaints from February 1st, through February 7th, while other crimes of violence tallied fewer compared with 2020.
Brooklyn North reduced overall crime by –39% in the last seven days however, data indicates that violence ruled the borough as 2 murders, 5 shootings and 7 rapes were reported. Year-to-date, murders are +50% ahead of last year’s pace and shootings are up +41% measured against the same period in 2020.
Manhattan South reported 1 shooting and 5 rapes over the last seven days. Year-to-date, the borough has 2 shootings and 2 homicides recorded.
Manhattan North data reveals that 1 shooting occurred last week while all other categories involving violence dropped compared with last year. Year-to-date, Manhattan North has experienced 12 shootings and 4 homicides.
In Queens South, overall crime is down –42% however, the borough recorded a murder and 2 shootings in the last seven days. Year-to-date, 3 murders and 9 shootings have been reported.
Queens North reported 1 shooting last week which was the 7th act of gunfire for the year to go along with 1 homicide. The borough was down in all other crime categories involving violence.
Staten Island recorded 1 homicide, which was not gun related, last week and year-to-date the borough has tallied 2 murders and 1 shooting incident. Felony assaults rose +23% with 16 new allegations reported and 24 misdemeanor assault cases were also reported in the last seven days.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
Thus far in 2021, the city-wide crime pattern indicates property crimes and other non-violent crime categories are down however, violence continues to strike fear in the hearts of all New Yorkers. Legislative sources in Albany have informed me that State lawmakers are either ignoring or are in a contrived “state of denial” regarding the violence and already have four new bills lined up to further restrict law enforcement to the benefit of criminals. The New York City Council is also poised to reduce the NYPD’s footprint in the City as the violence continues to escalate in their districts and on mass transit.
The NYPD’s latest CompStat figures reflect data as of February 7th however, countless shootings and heinous random acts of violence have happened since that date on City streets, subway trains and station platforms causing the Police Commissioner to respond by assigning 500 additional uniformed officers to patrol mass transit underground. Published crime figures combined with the intent of Lawmakers leads us to draw one conclusion; violence will continue to dominate and other crime categories will follow suit.
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