The Bi-Weekly Brosnan NYC Crime Brief is a great example of the type of Intelligence as a Service reports that we offer to our clients throughout the United States. At Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC), we believe that access to actionable intelligence is an integral cornerstone of a good security plan.This bi-weekly Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) crime brief covers the two-week period in New York City from February 8th through February 21st, 2021. The brief compares 2021 year-to-date crime data with figures collected from 2020 and compares the current two weeks of statistics in areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC.
Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
Year-to-date statistics as of February 21st inform us that overall crime in the seven major crime classifications declined –25% compared with data collected as of this date last year. For the first seven weeks of 2021, crime has plummeted in most of the major categories except stolen autos, +12%, and shootings which have risen +25% above 2020 figures, totaling 126 acts of gunfire versus 101 last year. The +25% hike in gunfire so far this year is in addition to the +100% increase experienced last year above 2019’s figures.
Over the last two-weeks crime dropped -57% combined compared with the same fourteen-day lookback in 2020 however, gun violence continues to plague New Yorkers with 33 new incidents including 6 murders. Key factors leading to the statistical drop-off are the work of the NYPD and the impact of a much harsher winter bringing inclement weather and freezing temperatures which were absent last season.
With burglaries up significantly for the year, retail businesses in NYC could gain a great advantage by having a retail loss prevention strategy in place. Implimenting security policies and procedures, training and coaching staff to follow security protocols, and contracting the best security guard company in NYC that you can find should all be considered throughout the rest of the year.
It also may be time to consider some small capital improvements like locks, safes, rolling gates and alarm systems from trusted vendors and manufacturers.
Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to Brosnan's Clients
In the borough of Manhattan South (below 59th street) the two-week crime rate dropped –39% and –31% respectively. No gun violence erupted in week one however, two shooting incidents happened the following week. Contrary to last year’s statistics, the borough has gained some control of its commercial burglary condition and reduced them by –7% year-to-date. Stolen vehicles and felony assaults are on the rise compared with last year’s numbers and tucked away in the stats are the BLM/ANTIFA disturbances taking place in this portion of the City. Housing crime was up +50% over the fourteen-day period and random subway attacks continue taking place in Manhattan worrying straphangers even though ridership is down 80%.
Concentrating on specific commands below 59th street, the 1st Precinct, covering Wall Street and the Seaport, reduced crime –59% over the last two-weeks with no gun violence taking place. Figures reveal that crime fell in all categories except petit larcenies which rose +35%, most likely committed by homeless individuals.
The 10th Precinct covering the vicinity of Chelsea Piers on the west side reduced crime -59% in week one and –50% the following week. The Precinct reported dips in all categories with no gun violence occurring.
Midtown North Precinct is credited with reducing crime by –100% combined over the recent two weeks with drops in each crime classification except felony assaults. Felony Assaults jumped +67% in week one and an alarming +600% the following seven days with some cases attributed to random subway attacks. Investigators at the MTN Detective Squad are investigating the assaults.
The northern section of Manhattan, above 59th Street, reported crime drops of –20% and –29% in successive weeks. During the first seven days the borough recorded one homicide which was not gun-related and it was the boroughs fifth of the year. The following seven days crime dropped in all categories, but two new shooting incidents occurred. Year-to-date Manhattan North has recorded 5 murders and 14 acts of gunfire. Transit crime and housing crime has spiked +60% and +20% respectively and stolen autos rose +400% during the first seven-day span.
The 30th Precinct in Hamilton Heights recorded an +8% rise during week one and a –53% decline the second week. The +8% increase was due to spikes in felony assaults, grand larcenies and stolen cars. The following week the 30th reported drops in all crime categories.
On the Upper East Side (UES) crime dived –55% in the 19th Precinct during week one and recorded drops in most crime classifications except stolen vehicles which spiked +300%. Commercial burglaries, which haunted the 19th Precinct during Covid, seem under control now with an –88% decline in cases. Crime dipped another –64% the second week with significant reductions in each category. Year-to-date, the 19th is down –46% in the major crime classifications with one recorded shooting.
The 23rd Precinct was up +14% in week one which was attributed to spikes in street robberies +133% and felony assaults +25%. Housing related crime rose once again in the 23rd by +33%. During the second week, crime plummeted –44% with minor upticks recorded in misdemeanor assaults and petit larceny complaints. Year-to-date, the 23rd Precinct has had 4 shootings resulting in 2 homicides. Last year, at this time, the 23rd had only one shooting representing a +300% increase.
On the Upper West Side (UWS) the 20th Precinct continues to drive down crime recording successive weeks of –43% and –59% with no gun violence. One hate crime occurred and is under investigation by precinct Detectives. Petit larcenies are up +43% with 43 new complaints reported. During week two, petit larceny complaints continued to rise +17% and stolen auto cases spiked while all other crime classes dropped.
The 24th Precinct, covering the northern portion of the UWS, reduced crime in week one –28% and watched crime jump back up +50% in week two. Housing authority crime, which was up +67%, was the only category recording an increase over the first seven days. Unlike week one, the Precinct recorded hikes in all categories with housing related crime +100%, robberies, grand larceny and sex crimes leading the way.
In the Bronx, the 44th Precinct crime rate rose +75% in week one and an additional +11% the following week. Week one’s hike was rooted in street robberies rising +125%, felony assaults +143% and grand larceny cases +89%. During week two, one murder by gunshot, 15 felony assaults and 4 stolen vehicles drove the +11% hike. Year-to-date, violence in the 44th Precinct is higher at this point than last year with 5 shootings recorded and 114 felony assault complaints logged.
The 110th Precinct in South Corona, Queens reports that crime dropped in successive weeks by –38% and –29% with no gun violence.
The 112th command reduced crime by –7% and –23% during the two-week lookback. Two rapes were recorded, felony assaults, burglaries and petit larcenies showed minor upticks.
Brosnan Security Watch List:
The inclement weather had no impact during week one as crime rates rose in the 114th Precinct +25% and the Midtown South Command +10%. No gun violence occurred in the 114th but the +25% hike was rooted in 3 rapes and increases in burglaries, stolen autos, grand larcenies and sex-related complaints. In week two, the 114th Precinct gained control reducing crime –34%. Burglaries and petit larceny complaints continued to surge upwards during week two despite the overall rate reduction.
Driving Midtown South’s increase in week one was sharp upticks in felony assaults +350%, burglaries +233%, street robberies +250% and transit crime rose +50%. The following seven days, Midtown South reduced overall crime –10% despite significant increases in felony assaults +250%, burglaries +160% and robberies +100% over last year’s count.
Borough Violence Report:
The Bronx took a “homicide holiday” during the first week under review which doesn’t happen often as the weekly crime rate dipped –17%. Four shootings occurred and 26 sex-related crimes were reported. Robbery and felony assault cases fell. Murder returned during the following week as 5 shootings erupted bringing the year-to-date total to 40 acts of gunfire which is +43% higher than last year and a +9% hike in murders with 12 in total.
Brooklyn South recorded 2 murders caused by 6 shootings over the two-week span with 39 felony assaults reported. Year-to-date the southern portion of Brooklyn has recorded 3 homicides and 15 shooting incidents.
Brooklyn North had 2 shootings in each week and 15 sex-related crimes. Year-to-date, the North tallied +25% more murder cases over last year with 10 homicides in total caused by 27 shootings, which is also +29% higher than last year.
Manhattan South borough was quiet during the first week but was challenging the following week recording 2 shootings, 33 new felony assault cases and 24 street robberies. Year-to-date, the borough is up +33% in shooting incidents, but murders have declined so far by –33%.
Manhattan North reports one murder, which was not gun-related, and 2 shootings during the two-week stretch. Five rapes and 14 sex crimes were reported while robberies and felony assaults plummeted. Year-to-date, Manhattan North has recorded -29% fewer murders so far this year and has tallied the exact number of shootings, 14.
Queens South reported a bloody two-weeks with 8 shootings causing one homicide and injuring seven others. The year-to-date comparison shows homicides down –20% from last year and one less shooting so far in 2021.
Queens North reports that no gun violence erupted in the borough during the recent two-week stretch, however 7 rapes were reported. The borough had 5 homicides by this time last year compared with only 1 so far in 2021. Gunfire is up +75% compared with last year at this point.
Staten Island recorded a homicide, a shooting and a rape over the recent two-weeks with reductions in all other violent crime categories. Year-to-date, 3 murders have occurred compared with zero last year by this time.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
The NYPD’s year-to-date crime statistics are trending downwards except for shootings and stolen autos. The gun violence that has erupted over the past 15 months has all New Yorkers on edge to say the least. Random subway attacks and numerous biased assaults on Asian people aren’t boosting the confidence of New Yorkers either who see plummeting crime data as a mere false sense of security. As spring approaches and the weather begins to warm, we anticipate crime to move with the temperature...up. High profile police cases will dominate the press pages for the next few weeks.
On March 1st, the NYPD’s internal departmental trial commences against Sergeant Hugh Barry who was indicted on murder charges for shooting an emotionally disturbed female with a baseball bat in the Bronx and was then acquitted after trial. Political pressure is being applied on the Police Commissioner to terminate Sergeant Barry despite his acquittal. On March 8th the criminal trial against Minneapolis Police Officer Derek Chauvin commences for the murder of George Floyd. The outcomes of these cases will surely have an impact on crime and violence in New York City, Minneapolis and other big cities in the country.
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