The Bi-Weekly Brosnan NYC Crime Brief is a great example of the type of Intelligence as a Service reports that we offer to our clients throughout the United States. At Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC), we believe that access to actionable security intelligence is an integral cornerstone of a good security plan.This bi-weekly Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) crime brief covers the two-week period in New York City from February 22nd through March 7th, 2021. The brief compares 2021 year-to-date crime data with figures collected from 2020 and compares the current two weeks of statistics in areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC.
Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
As of March 7th, 2021, year-to-date statistics yield a crime reduction of –24% in the seven major crime categories across the five boroughs when compared with 2020 figures on this date. City-wide violence remains up +42% due to 173 acts of gunfire compared with 122 shootings by this time last year. As a result of the increase in shooting incidents the victim count has jumped +37% from last year with 189 New Yorkers shot compared with 138. Only for the lack of accuracy has the homicide rate dropped –4% this year with 55 people killed versus 57 by this time in 2020.
Growing at the speed of light is the rate of autos being stolen in the five boroughs over the last eighteen months. So far this year 1,300 cars have been taken which is +11% over 2020’s figures and an average of 20 cars per day. On a good note, all other crime classifications are down at this point compared with last year. Focusing on the last two weeks, city residents witnessed 7 murders resulting from 20 shootings representing an +82% hike and stolen vehicles rose +15%. Statistics indicate a drop in all other crime categories for the two-week lookback.
In general, crime and theft are up significantly for the year, retail businesses in NYC should strongly consider reevaluating their current retail loss prevention strategy. Implementing security policies and procedures, training and coaching staff to follow security protocols, and hiring the best security guard company in NYC that you can find should be on every retail businesses security list.
As part of that planning, it also may be time to consider some small capital improvements like better locks, safes, rolling gates and alarm systems from trusted security vendors and manufacturers.
Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to Brosnan's Clients
Crime data examined below 59th Street in Manhattan indicates a rate reduction of –48% over the two-week stretch. One homicide and 2 shootings occurred, and commercial burglaries have picked back up rising +37% and +48% respectively. Housing authority crime continues to increase in the borough of Manhattan South jumping by +143% with no solution in sight yet. Year-to-date the borough has recorded 4 murders and 6 shootings, which is double the number reported in 2020 at this time.
Focusing on individual commands in Manhattan South, the 1st Precinct reported a crime drop of –8% over the past fourteen days with 1 homicide. Stats tell us commercial burglaries and stolen autos are getting cop’s attention on the midnight tour, but other categories are down.
In the vicinity of Chelsea Piers, the 10th Precinct recorded crime dips of –56% and –44% respectively. Robberies, felony assaults and burglaries jumped during week one. The following week all crime categories dropped, including burglaries and 1 murder was reported.
Moving north on the west side, the Midtown North Precinct boasted an –89% reduction over the two-week lookback with no gun violence reported. Despite very favorable rate reductions, MTN did experience upticks in robberies, felony assaults and burglaries.
In the borough of Manhattan North violence erupted with 2 murders, 8 shootings and 33 street robberies taking place in fourteen days. Year-to-date the borough has recorded 7 murders, 23 shootings and a +28% jump in stolen vehicles.
The 30th Precinct, covering the Hamilton Heights section of Harlem, reported a week of +13% increase and a –21% decrease the next. Commercial burglaries are a rising condition in this command so far with a +38% jump over last year’s figures.
The Upper East Side (UES) is patrolled by the 19th and the 23rd Precincts. The 19th Precinct has reduced crime by -81% over the two-week period and has controlled commercial burglaries, documenting an –83% drop compared with last year’s data. Street robberies rose by +40% having the attention of precinct detectives.
The 23rd Precinct has successfully diminished crime by –98% over the past fourteen days. Despite the overall data reduction, year-to-date the 23rd recorded increases in rapes, robberies, and commercial burglaries. Five shootings and 2 murders have also been recorded so far in 2021. Year-to-date, overall crime on the UES has dropped –59% based on 19th and 23rd Precinct annual crime data.
The Upper West Side (UWS) is covered by the 20th and 24th Precincts. The 20th command recorded a net increase of +47% over the two-week lookback. No gun violence was reported, however robberies, felony assaults and rapes had significant increases. Petit larcenies continue to be problematic in this command due to the growing homeless population.
The 24th Precinct recorded a net reduction of –6% in crime over the past fourteen days with one shooting. Housing authority crime once again jumped significantly by +33% in week one and +67% the following. Year-to-date, overall crime has dropped by –48% on the UWS based on 20th and 24th precinct crime statistics.
The 44th Precinct recorded a +9% crime jump in week one and a –25% decrease in week two under review. Although no gun violence occurred, robberies, burglaries, petit larcenies and misdemeanor assaults went up and sex-related crimes jumped +300% keeping the Special Victim Unit detectives busy. Year-to-date, 1 murder and 5 shootings have been recorded at the 44th Precinct.
Across the river to Queens, the 110th Precinct reported a crime reduction of –51% over the past fourteen days with commercial burglaries being the sole category to show an increase.
In Forest Hills, the 112th Precinct watched crime drop –19% in two weeks. Three hate-crimes have taken place in this command and all three are under investigation by precinct detectives.
Brosnan Security Watch List:
In the last fourteen days residents of the 114th Precinct witnessed crime rise +22% including 1 shooting injuring 2 people. Commercial burglaries jumped an eye-popping +450% over the last seven days while rape and sex crimes are trending at +267% for the year.
The Midtown South Precinct (MTS) recorded a net decrease of –13% in overall crime during the two-week review. Commercial burglaries exploded however in this command with 23 new cases reported in fourteen days reflecting a jaw-dropping +1,500% increase over last year’s figures. Precinct investigators are quick to point out that last year’s burglary numbers were very low because COVID-19 had not yet arrived in New York, therefore businesses were not shuttered and vulnerable. Today, commercial businesses in this area may benefit from hiring a security services company. Street robberies and felony assaults rose dramatically as well including a few high-profile biased assault incidents.
If crime figures do not start to improve in these commands, they will be moved off the watch list and incorporated into the regular bi-weekly report in their respective boroughs.
Borough Violence Report:
Over the last seven days in the Bronx 5 shootings caused 2 homicides and injured 3 victims. Eight rapes were also reported representing a +167% hike compared with the same seven-day period last year. Year-to-date the Bronx remains a deadly borough recording 16 murders and 52 shootings.
Brooklyn South experienced 3 shootings and 1 homicide this week. Year-to-date 23 shootings have claimed 6 lives and injured 19 others.
Brooklyn North recorded 1 murder, 7 shootings and an increase in felony assaults this week. Year-to-date, Brooklyn North detectives are investigating 11 new homicides and 38 shootings.
Manhattan South detectives are investigating a new homicide which wasn’t gun related. Robberies are up +56% for the week while felony assaults fell. Year-to-date, this borough has recorded 4 homicides and 6 shootings which is +100% higher than 2020 at this time.
Manhattan North had 1 murder and 3 shootings this week to go along with an increase in street robberies. Year-to-date, Manhattan North has experienced 7 homicides and 23 shootings.
Queens South recorded no gun violence over the recent seven days and was down in all violent crime categories. Year-to-date, murders are up +20% while shootings dropped –22% versus data from 2020.
In Queens North no gun violence was recorded but rapes jumped +33% over the last seven days. Year-to-date, murders are down –80% however, shootings are up +33% over last year's numbers.
Staten Island stats indicate a murder, 2 shootings and a rape were reported while felony assaults and robberies fell. Year-to-date, the borough has 4 murders and 5 shootings under investigation.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
Although we rely heavily on a computerized “crime-stat” program to give us necessary feedback, which right now is generating negative crime trends, the statistics don’t always tell the whole story. The data can be misleading and not indicative of how fragile and unsafe life really is in our City. For example, this weekend a young mother was accidentally shot in the head and killed walking home from shopping by brazen criminals who were engaged in a shootout in broad daylight. A second example being out of control criminals in separate cars speeding on a Bronx highway shooting at each other and seriously wounding innocent drivers. Next week these tragic events will simply be buried in the pretty picture of CompStat numbers.
As warmer weather arrives and the City begins to repopulate, post-COVID, crime numbers unfortunately will pick up. Violence is expected to further increase because there is nothing in place to prevent it. State legislators are considering additional restrictions on law enforcement and the new Congress in Washington DC introduced a “Defund the Police” bill for consideration. Crime and violence are already on the rise in many parts of the country and the real barometer will be the verdict in the George Floyd murder trial in Minneapolis commencing this week. Violence is expected no matter what verdict is returned, but an acquittal is certain to generate much more.
Threat Intelligence as a Service
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