The Bi-Weekly Brosnan NYC Crime Brief is a great example of the type of Intelligence as a Service reports that we offer to our clients throughout the United States. At Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC), we believe that access to actionable security intelligence is an integral cornerstone of a good security plan.This bi-weekly Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) crime brief covers the two-week period in New York City from March 7th, 2021 tot March 21st, 2021. The brief compares 2021 year-to-date crime data with figures collected from 2020 and compares the current two weeks of statistics in areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC.
Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
As of March 21st, 2021 crime in the five boroughs is down –21% in the seven major crime categories compared with crime rates collected at this time in 2020. Violence continues to drive the conversation in New York City however, the danger it presents can’t be gleaned by simply looking at aggregate stats. Over the last fourteen days 47 shootings erupted bringing the annual tally to 220 which is 40% higher than last year. As a result, the murder rate has also jumped by 12% over last year at this time with 76 New Yorkers succumbing to gunshots. In the last two-weeks 18 homicides were committed compared with 11 murders in 2020. Rape in the City is dramatically up +94% and sex related crimes are lighting up the statistical chart as well. Lastly, stolen cars are up +15% over last year so far with better than 1,600 vehicles taken.
Crime and theft are still up significantly for the year, retail businesses in NYC should strongly consider contracting with a vendor that supplies comprehensive loss prevention services.
Implementing security policies and procedures, training and coaching staff to follow security protocols, and hiring the best security guard company in NYC that you can find should be on every retail business' security list.
As part of that planning, it also may be time to consider some small capital improvements like better locks, safes, rolling gates and alarm systems from trusted security vendors and manufacturers.Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to Brosnan's Clients
In the borough of Manhattan South, below 59th Street, crime went up +16% in the past week with one shooting and three hate crimes reported. Rapes and sex related crimes increased +33% and +163% respectively in just seven days while felony assaults rose +114% with 45 new cases reported. Slowly the burglary rate is starting to climb again with an +11% jump in the past week and +2% mark year-to-date below 59th Street.
Crime in the neighborhoods surrounding the South Street Seaport grew by +12% last week. Driving the increase were hikes in rapes, felony assaults, petit larcenies and misdemeanor assaults. Data from the 1st Precinct indicates –38% fewer crimes have been reported year-to-date.
The 10th Precinct reported no change in its crime rate over the past seven days compared with the same week in 2020. Felony assaults and grand larcenies had a minor uptick but were offset by declines in other major crime classifications resulting in the flat rate.
The Midtown North Precinct (MTN) recorded a +7% increase for the seven-day period with one shooting. Sex crimes +300%, felony assaults and grand larceny complaints drove the +7% hike.
Above 59th Street, Manhattan North reported a +5% rate increase over last year at this point. The borough had 2 shootings resulting in a homicide, which was its 10th of the year to go along with 34 shootings. Grand Larcenies, stolen autos and sex related crimes were all up in the last seven days causing the +5% hike.
In Hamilton Heights, the 30th Precinct recorded a flat crime rate over the last seven days and a year-to-date figure of –13%. Felony assaults and grand larcenies showed a minor uptick for the week but were offset by declines in other categories.
The Upper East Side (UES) is patrolled by the 19th and 23rd Precincts. The 19th command had an active week recording a +72% crime increase. No gun violence erupted however, jumps in burglaries, robberies, felony assaults and grand larcenies shaped the sharp increase. Precinct detectives noted that mild weather and people back in public contributed to the hike.
The 23rd command fared better this week recording -26% fewer crimes than the same week last year. Grand and petit larceny complaints had a slight uptick however, all other classifications declined.
On the Upper West Side (UWS) the 20th Precinct crime rate jumped +20% due to a +175% combined hike in grand and petit larceny cases. Misdemeanor assaults also rose sharply +500%.
The 24th Precinct also recorded a hike of +21% driven by spikes in burglaries, grand larcenies and minor assault cases.
Heading into the Bronx near Yankee Stadium, the 44th Precinct recorded –3% fewer crimes for the week with one shooting incident. Violence in this command is picking up, recording dramatic increases in shootings year-to-date compared with last year. Burglaries and grand larcenies are problematic right now for the 44h Precinct.
Moving into Queens, the 110th Precinct in South Corona recorded –10% fewer crimes than last year at this time. Despite the rate reduction, the Precinct recorded minor upticks in robberies, felony assaults and sex related crimes. Petit larcenies increased by +110% with 40 new cases reported in seven days.
In Forest Hills the 112th command was down –23% for the week despite minor hikes in petit larcenies and misdemeanor assaults.
Brosnan Security Watch List:
The 114th Precinct and Midtown Precinct South (MTS) continued their upward crime trends. The 114th rose +65% this week and is up +5% for the year. Stolen autos, felony assaults, grand larcenies and burglaries drove the sharp increase. Year-to-date this command has 1 murder, 4 shootings and 12 rape cases under investigation by Precinct Investigators.
Midtown Precinct South (MTS) also marked a sharp +74% crime hike this week with 47 major crimes being reported over just seven days. Sex related crimes +400%, burglaries +233%, felony assaults +175% and robberies +133% drove the increase.
Borough Violence Report:
The Bronx averaged a shooting each day over the last two weeks with 2 murders recorded. Year-to-date, 65 shootings have resulted in 19 homicides and 71 people injured from gunfire. Nine new rape cases were reported in the last seven days.
Brooklyn South borough had a violent stretch over the last two weeks with 7 shootings causing 4 homicides. Rapes were up +100% with 6 new cases in seven days.
Brooklyn North violence is trending quickly as the borough recorded 9 shootings and 2 murders in fourteen days. Rapes, robberies and felony assaults increased dramatically the last two weeks and 1 hate crime was reported. Year-to-date Brooklyn North has tallied 47 shootings resulting in 13 murders.
Manhattan South is struggling with felony assaults trending off the charts rising +153% combined over the last two weeks. The borough also reported 1 shooting, 4 rapes, 21 sex related crimes and 3 hate crimes.
Manhattan North reported 11 shootings in fourteen days causing 3 homicides. Felony assaults and sex related crimes marked sharp increases with 101 and 12 new complaints filed respectively.
Queens South had a challenging two weeks dealing with 5 murders and 4 shootings during the two-week stretch. Year-to-date the homicide rate is up +120% from last year at this time. Rapes and felony assaults showed upticks over the past seven days.
Queens North is pushing back on gun violence as data reveals –67% fewer homicides this year than last year. Despite no gun violence in the last seven days, 14 sex crimes, 2 rapes and 2 hate crimes were reported.
Staten Island sustained 1 murder and 1 shooting over the last 14 days however, year-to-date the borough’s murder rate climbed +400% and shootings jumped +20% when compared with data from this time last year.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
The trend, “violence rules”. The forecast, “it will continue”. Contributing factors rotating into place to support this are abundant. On the local front, the New York City Council moved to strip NYPD cops of “qualified immunity” which is a valuable tool cops rely on to do their jobs effectively while acting in good faith. Its removal certainly leaves officers contemplating whether-or-not to get involved and needy civilians wondering if law enforcement will show up when called.
New York State’s “no bail-no jail” laws, which compromise safety of innocent civilians, were brought into focus by the front page of the NY Post this week as the paper exclaimed that a career gun-toting criminal was arrested five different times for firearms possession, only to be released back into public circulation after each arrest despite never appearing in court on any of his scheduled return dates.
Nationally, a divided country seeks normalcy and unity. In Minneapolis, the trial against former Police Officer Derek Chauvin starts today and will receive plenty of media coverage. Daily media reports on the trial's progress will certainly move the needle on rhetoric and violence as the NYPD and departments all around the country measure the temperature, formulate contingency plans and brace for the impact of a verdict.
Threat Intelligence as a Service
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Threat Intelligence as a Service products can enable your organization to make operational, strategic, and/or tactical decisions by providing you with actionable data that has a high degree of relevancy and probability. This data often used to help steer our client’s out of harm’s way and protect their brands’ reputation.
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