The Bi-Weekly Brosnan NYC Crime Brief is a great example of the type of Intelligence as a Service reports that we offer to our clients throughout the United States. At Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC), we believe that access to actionable security intelligence is an integral cornerstone of a good security plan.This Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) crime brief covers the period in New York City from March 22nd, through April 4th, 2021. The brief compares year-to-date statistics in 2021 with figures collected from 2020 and compares the most current weekly data in the areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC.
Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
As of April 4th, 2021, overall crime figures in the City are down –15% despite murders and shootings rising at an alarming rate. Year-to-date, homicides are up +20% from last year at this time and shootings have increased +57% over figures from 2020. It’s important to point out that the +57% hike in shootings this year is on top of the +100% jump realized in 2020 from 2019’s data. With the arrival of milder weather over the last two weeks crime rates have taken off by +76% city wide in the seven major crime categories. Recorded data in crime classifications outside of the seven majors show a social breakdown is occurring as 2,800 petit larcenies 1,100 misdemeanor assaults and 259 sex-related crimes were reported in just two-weeks.
Over the last fourteen days New York City averaged 1 homicide and 4 shootings per day which equates to +55% higher murders and +257% more gunfire compared with the same two-weeks in 2020. Extremely alarming are the significant hikes in hate crimes +1,200%, rapes +457%, robberies +43% and felony assaults +43% in just fourteen days. Up to this point, violence was the lead story however, crimes against people and property now compliment the violence as those categories are starting to show dramatic increases.
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Below 59th Street in Manhattan crime rose +80% last week with 1 shooting, 3 rapes and 6 hate crimes reported. Robberies, felony assaults and misdemeanor assaults were also significantly higher while commercial burglaries fell by –22%. Detectives assigned to squads throughout Manhattan South are experiencing a rise in their caseloads. Across the board, investigators claim since the arrival of the vaccine, the City has been more populated, translating into more crime being reported in most precincts.
The 1st Precinct recorded an unusual +171% hike in crime for the week. Felony assaults and grand larcenies rose +400% each, petit larcenies jumped +233% and misdemeanor assaults increased by +100% in seven days. Two hate crimes were reported this week in this command.
The 10th Precinct experienced a +23% crime jump this week with grand larcenies, misdemeanor assaults and housing crime contributing to the hike. The 10th continues to struggle with commercial break-ins which have steadily increased by +85% year-to-date.
For the week, Midtown North Precinct (MTN) crime stats went up +178% in seven days with significant hikes in robberies, minor assaults, grand larcenies and petit larcenies.
We’ve moved the Midtown South Precinct (MTS) from the watchlist and will now add this command under the bi-weekly Manhattan South Borough report due to the command’s soaring crime figures. Over the last seven days crime increased +342% due to an explosion in street robberies +500%, felony assaults +1,300%, grand larcenies +667%, petit larcenies +289% and misdemeanor assaults +1,200%. Hate crimes in MTS are dramatically on the rise year-to-date.
Manhattan North Borough recorded a +55% hike in overall crime for the week with 1 murder and 3 shootings reported. Each crime classification closed the week with higher numbers with rapes, robberies and grand larcenies leading the way.
In Hamilton Heights, the 30th Precinct was the sole bright spot showing a –42% crime reduction over the last seven days with only minor upticks in burglaries and misdemeanor assaults.
The 19th and 23rd Precincts patrol Manhattan’s Upper East Side (UES). From March 29th through April 4th the 19Th Precinct had a +95% rate increase over the same period last year. Worth noting, the 19th recorded a +400% hike in residential burglaries and jumps in grand larcenies and misdemeanor assaults contributed to the weekly crime rate.
The 23rd Precinct logged an equal amount of crime this week as it did last year therefore, the rate was unchanged. One shooting occurred and felony assaults rose by +150%, however all other categories fell.
The Upper West Side (UWS), patrolled by the 20th and 24th commands experienced a rate increase of +300% and +40% respectively for the week ending April 4th. The 20th is struggling with a +900% increase in robberies and petit larcenies each. Grand larcenies rose by +275% as well. The 20th Precinct is clinging to a negative year-to-date overall crime figure of –5, however, that's in jeopardy if the wave continues.
The 24th Precinct wrestled with a crime hike of +40% in the last seven days with robberies, grand larcenies and petit larcenies responsible for the spike.
Moving into the Bronx near Yankee Stadium, the 44th Precinct recorded a +52% increase capped off by 1 murder and 3 acts of gunfire. Street robberies jumped by +800% in seven days. Twelve felony assaults and 21 minor assaults were reported over the seven-day period.
In Queens, the 110th Precinct had a +26% rise in overall crime for the week compared with 2020’s data. The command recorded a startling +514% increase in petit larcenies which investigators attribute to a sense of shear entitlement by neighborhood crooks. Felony assaults, grand larcenies and minor assaults contributed to the weekly crime rate.
The 112th Precinct in Forest Hills boasted a –14% reduction for the week with minor upticks in grand and petit larcenies. One hate crime occurred in this command this week.
Brosnan Security Watch List:
The 114th Precinct remains on our watch list with an +80% rate spike in the last seven days. This command realized hikes in every crime classification including housing and transit crime. Year-to-date the 114th has recorded 3 murders and 6 shootings.
Borough Violence Report:
In the borough of the Bronx, violence continues to plague residents and the innocent as 28 shootings erupted over the last two-weeks causing 4 murders. Year-to-date murders are up +20% from last year and gunfire has increased by +91% with 80 shootings. Rapes, robberies, sex crimes and felony assaults rose significantly over the last two weeks compared with 2020 figures.
In Brooklyn South violence continues to rise with 2 murders and 8 shootings reported over the last fourteen days. Rapes and robberies rose and year-to-date the borough has tallied 14 homicides caused by 38 acts of gunfire.
Brooklyn North recorded a bloody two weeks with 12 shootings and 3 murders. Year-to-date, the borough is up +7% in murders with 16 incidents and 59 shootings representing a +34% hike. Street robberies rose significantly as well.
Violent crime in Manhattan South borough has residents and commuters on edge recording 1 homicide, 3 shootings, 20 sex related crimes and 4 hate crimes in just two weeks. Year-to-date, murders, gunfire and other acts of violence are well above 2020 figures below 59th street.
Manhattan North averaged 3 shootings and 1 murder above 59th street each of the two weeks. Like most areas of the City rapes, robberies and felony assaults are on the rise at alarming rates.
Queens South reported 4 acts of gunfire and 1 homicide during the two-week lookback. Rapes and other sex-related crimes are also much higher this year compared with 2020.
Queens North recorded rate hikes in all categories of violence including 1 murder, 2 shooting incidents and 3 hate crimes. Year-to-date, 11 acts of gunfire have occurred causing 4 murders. Compared to 2020’s data, murders are actually down in Queens North by –43% year-to-date.
Staten Island reported 2 new shooting cases and 2 hate crimes in the two-week span. Minor hikes in robberies, felony assaults and misdemeanor assault complaints were also recorded. Year-to-date Staten Island is +400% ahead of 2020 figures in homicides with 6 shootings.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
As forecasted, once milder weather arrived in New York City, crime and violence would parallel rising temperatures. Augmenting the milder weather is the fact that New Yorkers are fed up with restrictions imposed on them due to Covid, so the vaccine has renewed people’s confidence that normalcy is within grasp and City streets are getting more populated.
Simply put, the more people in circulation-the more people to be victimized and crime stats will increase accordingly. As the summer unfolds, we should really start to experience the fruits of legislative actions creating no criminal consequences, less incarceration, no bail-no jail laws, and a reactive policing model’s impact on the “quality of life” for New Yorkers.
New York State’s “no bail-no jail” laws, which compromise safety of innocent civilians, were brought into focus by the front page of the NY Post this week as the paper exclaimed that a career gun-toting criminal was arrested five different times for firearms possession, only to be released back into public circulation after each arrest despite never appearing in court on any of his scheduled return dates.
On a national level, the United States sits divided as the country seeks normalcy and unity. In Minneapolis, the trial against former Police Officer Derek Chauvin continues to receive plenty of media coverage. Subscribing to Brosnan's Minneapolis Security Updates is a great way for businesses and public organizations to gain insight into security issues stemming from the trial so that they may formulate contingency security plans and brace for the impact of a verdict.
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