The Bi-Weekly Brosnan NYC Crime Brief is a great example of the type of Intelligence as a Service reports that we offer to our clients throughout the United States. At Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC), we believe that access to actionable security intelligence is an integral cornerstone of a good security plan.This Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) crime brief covers the period in New York City from April 5th through April 18th, 2021. The brief compares year-to-date statistics in 2021 with figures collected from 2020 and compares the most current weekly data in the areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC.
Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
As of April 18th, 2021, year-to-date data indicates overall crime in the seven major crime categories across the five boroughs is down –11% versus this date in 2020. Just one month ago the overall crime rate was down –18% however, as a result of rising crime over the last four weeks the overall rate has lost seven percentage points to the criminals.
Concerning City residents are the facts with respect to gun violence as shooting incidents continue to pile up totaling 328 to-date which is +60% higher compared with last year. Resulting from the increased gunfire, the murder rate has jumped +6% since 2020 and the victim rate has climbed +64% which in layman’s terms equates to a two-thirds higher chance of being struck by flying bullets in New York City this year over last. Focusing on figures collected over the last two-weeks, 60 shootings caused 14 homicides while rapes and other sex related crimes jumped off the charts by +235% with 119 cases reported.
Robberies, assaults and thefts are exploding throughout the five boroughs as overall crime rose +61% city-wide in fourteen days. Hate crimes, mostly against Asians, have increased +1,300% with over twenty complaints recorded in fourteen days.
As crime and theft rates continue to climb, retail businesses throughout NYC should strongly consider hiring a company that provides security guard services and also specializes in loss prevention services.
As part of a retail store's security plan, it also may make sense to research and invest in better locks, safes, rolling gates and alarm systems from trusted security vendors and manufacturers.
When planned for accordingly, so much can be done to keep employees and inventory safe from criminal behavior.
Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to Brosnan's Clients
Below 59th Street in Manhattan, weekly crime has increased +65% and +70% respectively in the last two weeks including 2 shootings, a murder and 12 Asian hate-crimes. All crime classifications show significant hikes except burglaries which seem to be slowing due to businesses reopening and strategies being employed by the NYPD. Assaults +253% and thefts +298% have increased at alarming rates over the last seven days. Year-to-date, Manhattan South has recorded 12 shootings and 6 murders.
Precincts under the Manhattan South umbrella are reporting record crime hikes over the last fourteen days.
The 1st Precinct covering lower Manhattan below Canal Street has recorded weekly crime hikes of +143% and +133% respectively. Increases in rape, felony assaults, burglaries, grand larcenies and petit larcenies are responsible for the dramatic crime rate inflation.
The 10th Precinct, covering the west-side near Chelsea Piers, reported a drop of –8% in week one and a +27% hike in week two. Grand larcenies +175% and a hate-crime drove the increase. On a positive note, the 10th Precinct has made significant progress driving down commercial burglaries which have plagued this command since last year.
Midtown North Precinct (MTN) crime rose +91% during week one and followed with a +63 hike the next. Felony and misdemeanor assaults rose +1,200% combined while grand and petit thefts increased by +208%. Like the 10th Precinct, MTN has successfully reduced commercial burglaries in the last few weeks.
Midtown South Precinct (MTS) is struggling to put it mildly as crime surged +39% and +74% respectively over the two-week lookback. One shooting and dramatic jumps in robberies, felony assaults and grand larcenies drove the rate in week one. The following week significant increases continued in robberies, felony assaults and grand larcenies while misdemeanor assaults +533%, petit thefts +356% and sex-related crimes +300% contributed to this week's crime rate rise.
Above 59th Street the overall crime picture is no better as crime rates rose +36% and +46% in the two seven-day time frames. Shootings and hate-crimes kept Detectives in upper Manhattan busy, but Detective squad caseloads also exploded with 94 new felony assault cases and 180 new grand larceny complaints recorded for investigation over the past fourteen days. A pure indicator of how crime is trending in our city can be gleaned simply from looking at the surge in transit and housing crime, both of which spiked by +82%. Year-to-date Manhattan North is up +65% in gunfire with 43 incidents recorded causing 12 murders.
The 30th Precinct in Harlem reported a crime hike of +68% combined in the two-week time frame. Surges in robberies, felony assaults, burglaries, grand larcenies, petit thefts, transit and housing crimes all played their part.
The Upper East Side (UES) is experiencing the effects of the city’s crime surge as the 19th Precinct’s rates grew +24% and +39% respectively each week. In week one, felony assaults, grand larcenies and burglaries showed sharp increases. In week two, the 19th recorded a shooting, a hate-crime and hikes in robberies, felony assaults, and misdemeanor attacks. On a good note, burglaries fell for the week.
The 23rd Precinct recorded a tale of two-weeks with a crime reduction of –37% in week one and a surge of +90% the following week. Felony assaults +200% and grand larcenies +600% were responsible for the turnaround. Year-to-date in the UES there have been 9 shooting incidents causing 3 murders.
On the Upper West Side (UWS) the 20th Precinct was uncharacteristically up +356% combined over the last fourteen days with increases in every crime classification. The 24th Command is net +107% over the same fourteen-day period with increases in most categories except burglaries. Seven hate-crimes have been recorded in the UWS year-to-date.
Moving into the Bronx, near Yankee Stadium, the 44th Precinct picked up by an even +100% over the two-week time frame. Three murders and two shootings are keeping 44th Precinct Detectives occupied but felony assaults, robberies and grand larcenies are trending upwards requiring Detective's attention as well. Petit thefts and misdemeanor assaults are also on the rise in this command.
Across the river into Queens the 110th Precinct crime rate rose sharply each week by +82% and +56% respectively. Significant hikes occurred in each crime category except burglaries each week.
The 112th Command also rose by +29% and +30% respectively showing significant hikes in grand and petit thefts in week one. During the second week felony and minor assaults rose by +120% combined with one Asian-hate-crime reported.
Brosnan Security Watch List:
In Astoria, the 114th Precinct continues to struggle with rate hikes of +66% in week one and +100% in week two. High surges in every crime category materialized including one shooting and one murder. Year-to-date shootings are up +300% compared with last year at this time with 8 incidents and murders are up +33%.
Borough Violence Report:
Bronx violence rolls on with 7 murders caused by 21 shootings in the last fourteen days. In week one, 60 robbery cases and 104 felony assaults were recorded. In week two, 236 new assault complaints were filed while rapes and robberies fell slightly compared with last year’s weekly figures. Year-to-date the Bronx has recorded 31 murders and 100 acts of gunfire.
Brooklyn South reported 5 acts of gunfire in two weeks bringing the annual total to 43 shootings which is +105% higher than last year. Sex crimes rose an alarming +700% and felony and minor assaults continue to pile up.
Brooklyn North experienced 4 murders and 15 shootings over the last fourteen days, keeping Detectives busy. Year-to-date Brooklyn North Detectives are investigating 20 murders and 75 acts of gunfire. Rapes, robberies and felony assaults are also higher than last year getting the attention of investigators.
Manhattan South was riddled with hate-crimes against Asian people over the last two weeks to go along with 2 shootings and a murder case. Felony and misdemeanor assaults exploded with 310 new cases recorded in just the last seven days creating a real challenge for investigators who are already short staffed. Year-to-date, below 59th Street, there have been 12 shootings and 6 murders reported.
Manhattan North’s violence report consists of alarming increases in shootings, hate-crimes, sex crimes and felony and misdemeanor assaults. Year-to-date, 18 hate-crimes are under investigation and borough Detectives are also working on 12 murders caused by 43 shootings which is +65% higher than last year at this time.
In Queens South, 5 acts of gunfire occurred over the last fourteen days backed up by a sharp inflation of sex crimes and felony assaults. Robberies showed a minor uptick as well. Year-to-date the southern part of Queens has recorded 31 shootings and 12 murders.
Queens North reported 3 shootings, 2 murders and a hate crime over the two-weeks under review. The borough recorded 216 felony and misdemeanor assault complaints during the two-week period representing a +225% bi-weekly hike. Rapes and robberies also rose considerably, increasing the caseload of Precinct Detectives, who are already investigating 20 hate-crimes.
In Staten Island, 4 new shooting cases were reported raising the annual tally to 10 which is +25% higher than last year at this point. Five murders have residents on edge who have additionally witnessed major increases in felony and misdemeanor assaults year-to-date. Robbery statistics show a minor uptick over the two-week lookback.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
As forecasted, once milder weather arrived in New York City, crime and violence would parallel rising temperatures. Augmenting the milder weather is the fact that New Yorkers are fed up with restrictions imposed on them due to Covid, so the vaccine has renewed people’s confidence that normalcy is within grasp and City streets are getting more populated.
Simply put, the more people in circulation-the more people to be victimized and crime stats will increase accordingly. As the summer unfolds, we should really start to experience the fruits of legislative actions creating no criminal consequences, less incarceration, no bail-no jail laws, and a reactive policing model’s impact on the “quality of life” for New Yorkers.
New York State’s “no bail-no jail” laws, which compromise safety of innocent civilians, were brought into focus by the front page of the NY Post this week as the paper exclaimed that a career gun-toting criminal was arrested five different times for firearms possession, only to be released back into public circulation after each arrest despite never appearing in court on any of his scheduled return dates.
On a national level, the United States sits divided as the country seeks normalcy and unity. In Minneapolis, the trial against former Police Officer Derek Chauvin continues to receive plenty of media coverage. Subscribing to Brosnan's Minneapolis Security Updates is a great way for businesses and public organizations to gain insight into security issues stemming from the trial so that they may formulate contingency security plans and brace for the impact of a verdict.
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