Bi-Weekly Briefing Crime Statistics: New York City November 9th, 2020

This bi-weekly Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) crime brief covers the two-week period in New York City from October 19th through November 1st, 2020.

The brief compares 2020 year-to-date statistics with data collected from 2019 and compares the current two weeks of figures in the areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC and the security services that we provide. Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA.  The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.

As of November 1st, 2020, year-to-date statistics indicate that overall crime city-wide in the seven major crime categories is down –0.95% across the five boroughs when compared to 2019. As discussed in earlier briefs, crime fighting gains continue to slowly reverse as the data trends toward positivity. Since our October 26th briefing, 21 New Yorkers were killed because of gun violence compared with only 9 during the same two-week period in 2019 causing this year’s murder rate in NYC to rise +38.3%. Shootings also soared with 68 new incidents claiming 87 victims versus only 29 shootings with 34 injured last year. Year-to-date, over 1,600 people have suffered gunshot wounds from more than 1,300 incidents which represents a +94% hike from last year. Commercial burglaries and stolen autos continue to plague New York City as those categories have also experienced hikes of +41% and +64% respectively. Lastly, democratic candidate Joe Biden claimed victory in the Presidential election as President Donald Trump seeks relief from the courts citing widespread voter fraud.

Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to BRC’s Clients

Data generated over the last two weeks, specific to our clients, revealed that below 59^th street in Manhattan crime declined –27%. Despite the decline, the borough of Manhattan South recorded 1 murder and 4 shootings in the two weeks under review. During the week ending October 25^th commercial burglaries +130%, street robberies +23% and felonious assaults +23% were reported below 59^th Street. In week two ending November 1^st, the borough saw its 16^th murder and spikes in rapes +50% and felonious assaults +67%.

Focusing on a few individual commands in Manhattan South, the 10^th Precinct covering the vicinity north of Chelsea Piers on the west-side, recorded crime drops of –16% in week one and additional –78% in the second week. Two shootings were reported in week one to go along with increases in commercial burglaries +200% and felonious assaults +100%. In week two, no gun violence occurred, and crime was down in all major categories. 

Moving northeast towards Columbus Circle the Midtown North Precinct experienced an unusual +11% increase for the first week recording spikes in rapes, street robberies, felony assaults and burglaries however, no gun violence was reported. In week two ending November 1^st, the MTN command notched another crime hike of +8% with minor increases in commercial burglaries, felony assaults and stolen vehicles being the cause. 

Manhattan North sits above 59^th street and experienced a –13.5% drop in crime over the last two weeks. Despite the decline, the northern part of Manhattan recorded 9 shootings compared with only 2 during the same two-week period last year accounting for a +350% jump. Five rapes plus a +70% hike in commercial burglaries accompanied 5 shootings to shape the figures in week one. Between October 26^th and November 1^st, the borough also recorded 4 more shootings, 5 additional rapes, 22% more commercial burglaries and a +500% increase in stolen vehicles as 30 autos disappeared in just seven days.

Hamilton Heights section of Harlem is patrolled by the 30^th Precinct. The 30^th reported a crime decline equal to –44.5% over the last two weeks when compared to 2019’s figures. No gun violence was reported and the 30^th showed declines in each crime category from October 26^th through November 1^st.

The Upper East Side (UES) is patrolled by the 19^th and the 23^rd Precincts. The 19^th reported that crime was down in every category resulting in a drop of –22% in week one but week two yielded a spike of +18%. No gun violence occurred in either week, but increases were recorded in robberies, rapes, commercial burglaries and grand larcenies in week two leading to the +18% weekly spike. 

The 23^rd Precinct reduced crime by –82% over the two-week look back. No gun violence was reported in either week however, there were minor upticks in street robberies and petit larcenies during week two. 

The Upper West Side (UWS) lies in the confines of the 20^th and the 24^th Precincts. In week one, ending October 25^th, the 20^th Precinct was down in all crime categories with no gun violence. During week two, the 20^th once again experienced no gun violence but did see slight upticks in robberies, rapes and grand larceny of autos. 

The 24^th Precinct enjoyed an –82.5% decline in crime over the two weeks combined. In week one the 24^th was down in all crime categories but in week two this precinct recorded slight increases in robberies, stolen cars and petit larcenies.

In the vicinity of Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, the 44^th Precinct was busy dealing with a crime increase of +31% in fourteen days. This command handled a homicide and 2 shootings during the two week stretch. During week one the 44^th also recorded one rape plus a spike in grand larcenies +47% and a +167% jump in stolen cars. During the week ending November 1^st, the 44^th reported +500% more burglaries, +300 more sex crimes and +73% more felony assaults than in 2019.

On the other side of the Tri-Borough Bridge, the 110^th Precinct in Queens experienced two weeks of a mirror image in its crime reporting. During the week ending October 25^th, the 110^th dropped crime by –25% overall but did record 1 shooting and steep hikes in stolen cars +900% and rapes +400%. To the contrary, in week two this precinct recorded an increase in overall crime by +26.5% including 1 murder by gunfire, 8 felony assaults, 7 stolen cars and a +60% spike in street robberies. 

The 112th Precinct in Forest Hills reported crime going down by –71% in the first week with most crime classes being reduced except for a slight surge in minor assaults and petit larcenies. In the week ending November 1^st the 112th command listed crime up by +6 percentage points over the same week in 2019 showing upticks in grand and petit larcenies. There was no gun violence in either week.

Watch List: The 114^th Precinct in Astoria Queens remains on our watch list of precincts that are experiencing rising crime at an alarming rate and may be of interest to our client base. Over the most recent two weeks ending November 1^st the 114^th recorded crime increases of +93% and +87% respectively. During week one, the +93% rise came from steep hikes in rapes, street robberies, felony assaults, commercial burglaries (+800%), grand larcenies, petit larcenies and one shooting incident. Week two included no gun violence however there were spikes in street robberies, commercial burglaries and grand larcenies making up the +87% weekly rise.

The other precinct we have been watching closely is the Midtown South Precinct in Manhattan. MTS made it on our watch list for the excessive number of commercial burglaries and the growing number of street robberies and felony assaults being committed from 29^th Street north to 44^th Street in the center part of Manhattan. During week one Midtown South recorded an overall crime hike of +18% showing commercial burglaries continuing to climb by +233%. Street robberies and felony assaults also climbed +200% and +83% respectively. During week two overall crime did fall by –26% however, the command continues to be plagued by commercial burglaries that rose +200% and felony assaults +167%. 

The Borough Violence Report:

The Borough of the Bronx remains violent and dangerous as 8 homicides occurred in the last two weeks accounting for a +700% increase from the same two weeks in 2019. The Bronx also experienced 14 shootings, 112 felony assaults and 8 rapes during the two-week lookback. Year-to-date the Bronx is second to only Brooklyn North with 93 murders.  

Brooklyn South continues to explode with violence and added 4 new murders to their annual count of 53. This borough also experienced 12 shootings, 14 rapes, 75 street robberies and 111 felony assaults. 

Brooklyn North remains the deadliest of the five boroughs with 95 homicides year to date.  Over the last two weeks the borough had 6 murders and 14 shootings. Rapes climb +75% and felony assaults climbed as well.

Manhattan South recorded its 16^th murder for the year and 4 new shooting incidents.  Felony assaults climbed +23% one week and another +67% the second week with 83 complaints filed.  Street robberies rose +23%.

Manhattan North reported 9 new shootings representing a +350% increase from 2019’s figures during this two-week timeframe, fortunately no one was killed. The borough also averaged 5 rapes per week which is +43% higher than last year. 

Queens North saw crime jump +42% in two weeks including 5 shootings and 1 murder. Street robberies rose +21% and rapes moved up +300%.

Queens South reduced crime by –2% over the two-week period however, it also recorded 1 murder and 9 shootings. The southern part of Queens also saw significant increases in felony assaults, rapes and street robberies.

Staten Island reduced crime by –22% over the two-week lookback and suffered 1 shooting.  Year-to-date the borough has recorded 15 murders and 33 shootings which is unusually high for Staten Island.

Crime Trends and Forecasts

Despite some degree of uncertainty still surrounding the Presidential election, President-elect Joe Biden is moving forward with his transition agenda while President Trump mounts a court challenge. In the short-term, eventually either Biden or Trump will prevail and the result will dictate whether “politically motivated violence” will lessen or intensify. Realistically, the anarchy we witnessed will not evaporate no matter who occupies the White House so we should expect anarchists and their anti-America agenda to continue. Long-term for our business community and the law abiding, the question remains, what about the “traditional crime and violence” that has gripped New York City at alarming rates? Crime looks like a run-away freight train right now and it’s a direct result of legislative actions taken by New York State elected officials which must be reversed before it is too late. This January the next legislative session commences in Albany and if the “revolving door legislation” is not amended, at least to some degree, the forecast is rising crime and violence for 2021.

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Even though President Elect Joe Biden has declared victory in the recent Presidential race, the fallout from this year's election process seems to be far from over. The possibility of civil unrest is still present; and while protestors may not show up on your doorstep, they could impact your supply chain or the ability for your employees to get to and from work. If your Business Continuity Plan does not account for civil unrest, you may want to spend some time evaluating the potential impacts and creating contingency plans. 

All indicators show that it is not if, but when the next violent protest will erupt. A little planning and preparation go a long way. Click the link below to learn more about Brosnan's Strategic Response Team.

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