This bi-weekly Brosnan Risk Consultants (BRC) crime brief covers the two-week period in New York City from November 2nd through November 15th, 2020.
The brief compares 2020 year-to-date statistics with figures collected from 2019 and compares the current two weeks of data in the areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC. Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI, and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
As of November 15th, 2020, year-to-date statistics indicate that overall crime city-wide in the seven major crime categories is down -0.62 across the five boroughs when compared to the same period in 2019.
The real crime story can be gleaned by examining the trend of the city-wide figures. For example, on July 1st overall crime was down –3.0% when compared to last year however, that figure has slowly moved closer to zero and currently stands at -0.62% indicating that crime is trending toward a positive number for the year. Since our last briefing, 10 New Yorkers succumb to gunfire and 67 were wounded from 58 shootings in the two-week period. As a result of 10 new murders the City now has 405 homicides for 2020 and the murder rate remains at a +37% trend over 2019. Burglaries and grand larceny autos continue to pound City residents and business owners while gun violence, which threatens everyone including children, has doubled from 2019 figures. In the last seven days overall crime in New York City was up +9% with surges in burglaries +38%, stolen cars +127%, an alarming number (40) of forcible rapes reported and incidents of gunfire rising by +115%.
Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to BRC’s Clients
A review and analysis of statistics generated over the last two weeks specific to our clients was performed commencing with the area of Manhattan, below 59th street, referred to as Manhattan South. The southern portion of the borough realized a –42% crime reduction over the two-week look back compared to 2019 at this time. Despite the reduction one shooting occurred, rapes increased by +125% and street robberies rose by +13%. Felony assaults also rose by +28% in week one of the two-week period.
The 10th Precinct covering the west side north of Chelsea Piers reported quiet weeks with reductions of –65% and –33% respectively. Gun violence was nonexistent, and the 10th was down in all categories except for a slight uptick in burglaries and petit larcenies. Midtown North Precinct recorded a crime reduction of –104% in both weeks combined and was down in all crime categories except for slight upticks in burglaries and felony assaults.
Manhattan above 59th street experienced a +13% hike in crime for the two weeks combined. One murder and 7 shootings were reported which actually reflected a reduction in gun violence when compared to 2019’s data. During week one, felony assaults +11% and stolen vehicles +386% heightened. To date, 711 autos have been stolen in upper Manhattan and we attribute this to its proximity to the George Washington Bridge which provides car thieves with quick egress from New York State. During week two, cars continued to be stolen at the rate of +143% while burglaries skyrocketed by +147%.
The 30th Precinct in Hamilton Heights recorded an unusual hike of +40% including 1 shooting, 2 rapes and 13 felony and misdemeanor assaults. Focusing now on the Upper East Side (UES), the 19 Precinct reported up and down weeks with a –35% reduction from November 2nd to the 8th and +6% from the 9th to the 15th of the month. No gun violence was reported in either week however, burglaries +175% continue to plague the area and we did see spikes in felony and misdemeanor assaults during the review period.
Noticeable was the migration of the homeless below ground into the subway to escape the cold weather. The 23rd Precinct, which covers the northern end of the UES, reported a +147% crime hike during the two weeks under review. During the week ending November 8th, the Precinct recorded one shooting, 11 felony assaults (+450%), 13 misdemeanor assaults (+44%) and a +175% jump in identity fraud related grand larcenies. From November 9th to the 15th the 23rd Precinct recorded another shooting, a rape, 3 robberies, 4 burglaries, 9 grand larcenies and better than +200% hikes in felony and minor assaults to explain the +147% crime hike.
The Upper West Side (UWS) is covered by the 20th and 24th Precincts. Like the 19th precinct stats, the 20th Precinct recorded up and down weeks with a +21% jump in week one and –6% decline in week two. No gun violence was reported in either week but the crime spike in week one was attributed to stolen vehicles +700% and an uptick in minor thefts. Despite the –6% decline in week two, burglaries grew by at least +400% in seven days.
The 24th Precinct also reported conflicting crime stats with a reduction of –4% in week one and +53% in the second week under review. Once again, no gun violence occurred in either week however in the week ending November 8th the Precinct was down in most crime categories except burglaries +300% and petty thefts +17%. During the week ending November 15th, the precinct reported increases in felony assaults +200%, burglaries +250% and fraud related grand larcenies +33%.
Moving across the river to the 44th Precinct near Yankee Stadium, crime declined in week one by –13% and rose +49% during the second week under review. Despite the reduction recorded in the first week, 2 murders resulted from 2 shootings. The week of November 15th ended with no gun violence but did have increases in street robberies +450% and +55% in grand and petit larcenies combined. In the borough of Queens, the 110th Precinct which patrols south Corona recorded its version of the tales of two weeks with a reduction of –41% for the week ending November 8th but then experienced a +15% hike during the week ending November 15th. The +15% spike was due to increases in street robberies, felony assaults and commercial burglaries. No gun violence occurred in this command during the two-week time frame.
Forest Hills is patrolled by the 112th Precinct and it recorded an uncanny +167% jump in overall crime from November 2nd through the 8th. The generally quiet area experienced no gun violence however, commercial burglaries +500% and grand and petit larcenies +100% ignited the huge crime spike for the week. The following seven days, which ended on November 15th, the 112th Precinct turned it around and realized a –38% decline in overall crime recording no gun violence but a +400% rise in burglaries compared with the same week in 2019.
The Brosnan Watch List: The 114th Precinct in Astoria remains on our watch list as a command experiencing continuous rising crime data. Over the last two weeks the weekly crime rate rose +53% and +64% respectively. This Astoria neighborhood had one shooting and recorded increases in every major crime category during the review period. Manhattan’s Midtown South Precinct (MTS) also remains on our watch list mostly because of the high number of commercial burglaries occurring in the command. Over the recent two-week period MTS was up +11% in week one and down –4% in week two. One shooting was reported and the command recorded a +220% increase in felony assaults, burglaries +300% and street robberies +200%.
Borough Violence Report:
The Bronx reported 17 shootings resulting in 2 homicides. In 2019 the Bronx had 9 shootings during the same two-week period accounting for an +89% increase. Street robberies, felony assaults and rapes were also up significantly. Year-to-date, Bronx detectives investigated 96 murders which is +25% higher than 2019. Brooklyn South detectives investigated 2 new murders and 10 acts of gunfire in the past two weeks. Felony assaults, robberies and rapes have increased compared to 2019’s figures. Brooklyn North also had 2 new murder investigations to go along with 10 shootings over the two-week period. Rapes increased by +100% with 12 new incidents being reported. Brooklyn
North leads the city with 97 murders and the Bronx is a close second with 96 homicides recorded. Manhattan South (below 59th Street) did record one shooting during the two weeks. Rapes rose +125%, felony assaults +28% and street robberies jumped +13%.
Manhattan North, which generally has more criminal activity than the South, recorded 1 murder, 7 shootings and 84 felony assaults during the two-week time frame which were all up compared to 2019’s data. Queens North reported a crime surge of +35 in the last seven days ignited by upticks in rapes, robberies and 1 shooting. Grand Larceny Auto, although not a crime of violence, is worth mentioning because this category was up another +227% with 36 cars taken in seven days. Queens South reported a crime hike of +11% in one week and a reduction of –11% the next week. Gun violence was heavy over the two weeks under review with 2 homicides and 9 shootings being reported. Other violent crimes on the rise were rapes and felony assaults. Violence erupted again on Staten Island over the last two weeks with 1 murder and 3 shootings. Staten Island now has 17 homicides for the year 2020 compared with only 12 in 2019. The borough also had increases in street robberies and felony assaults as crime surged +12% overall.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
Crime trends continue to gain momentum and move in an upward direction, slowly eroding the gains made by law enforcement over the last 20 years. COVID’s resurgence could cause another “economic shutdown” which in-turn will trigger higher unemployment and even higher crime rates. Indecision surrounding the Presidential election and the ultimate resolution looms large when forecasting, however, we may have more direction soon as vote certification deadlines approach. At this point there is no reason to expect a forecast change for the remainder of 2020, so we anticipate crime to continue at this pace or worsen. On behalf of all of us at Brosnan Risk Consultants, I want to wish everyone a very Happy and Healthy Thanksgiving.
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