The Bi-Weekly Brosnan NYC Crime Brief is a general version of the type of Intelligence as Service report that we offer to our clients throughout the United States and is part of the full Security Services offerings available through Brosnan Risk Consultants. This crime brief covers the two-week period in New York City from November 16th through November 29th, 2020.
The brief compares 2020 year-to-date statistics with data collected from 2019 and compares the current two weeks of figures in the areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC.
Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
As of November 29th, 2020, year-to-date statistics indicate that overall crime, city-wide, remains marginally down –0.65% across the five boroughs in the seven major crime categories when compared to data collected by this time in 2019. As a reminder the seven major crime categories include murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny and grand larceny auto. Gunfire and victims of gunfire are tallied separately. Since our last report two weeks ago, New Yorkers have endured 9 homicides and 51 incidents of gunfire causing injuries to 63 people. With just one month remaining in 2020 the City has recorded 1,410 shootings versus only 720 in 2019 for a +96% spike and a daily average of almost 5 per day. With 420 homicides to date, the murder rate remains at +38% higher than last year and 1,730 people have been victimized by gunplay compared with 860 in 2019 representing a +101% increase.
Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to BRC’s Clients
A review and analysis of crime data collected from November 16th through November 29th, specific to our client base, was conducted. In the borough of Manhattan South, which is geographically below 59th Street, overall crime declined by –32% over the two weeks. In week one ending November 22nd, the borough recorded 1 shooting resulting in death, robberies and felony assaults slightly increased by +4% each, commercial burglaries grew by +57% and stolen autos shot up +600% versus the same week in 2019. During the second week under review another shooting was reported and we did see increases once again in robberies, commercial burglaries, felony assaults and stolen cars. Rapes fell by –75%.
The 10th Precinct, covering the west side north of Chelsea Piers to 43rd Street recorded increases of +17% and +14% with no gun violence over the two weeks. In week one the +17% increase was caused by hikes in street robberies +400%, subway crime +300% and felony assaults +50% with 3 commercial burglaries reported. Street robberies and grand larcenies caused the +14% spike in week two ending November 29th.
The Midtown North Precinct covering north to Columbus Circle reported that crime dropped -63% combined with no gun violence in either week. MTN recorded declines in each category except for commercial burglaries in week one. During week two, street robberies fell by –71% and there were slight upticks in felony assaults and petit larcenies. Commercial burglaries remain a problem in this command with 9 new cases signaling a +350% jump during the same period in 2019.
The borough of Manhattan North (above 59th Street) recorded a –22% drop during the week ending November 22nd and a +5% increase in week two. Four shootings resulting in 2 murders occurred during the two weeks under review with commercial burglaries spiking +88%. Grand larceny-auto continues to trend at an alarming rate in the northern part of Manhattan with a +203% increase from 2019’s figures measured during the same two-week time frame. We believe the volume of stolen cars in this portion of Manhattan is due to its proximity to the George Washington Bridge, providing easy access out of New York.
The 30th Police Precinct covering the Hamilton Heights section recorded conflicting weekly crime stats. During the week ending November 22nd crime spiked +113% in the 30th. No gun violence was reported, however the command experienced significant increases in street robberies, felony assaults and burglaries. The following week crime fell by –17% with no gun violence and recorded drops in all categories except minor assaults and petit larcenies.
The Upper East Side (UES) is patrolled by the 19th and the 23rd Precincts. The 19th Precinct reported crime reductions of –18% and –8% respectively with no gun violence in either week. The 19th was down in all categories except for rapes and robberies recording minor upticks in week one. During the following week, the Precinct recorded drops in all categories, however commercial burglaries continue to haunt this command as 7 new cases rolled in.
The 23rd Precinct covering the northern end of the UES reported two good weeks with crime dropping –16% and –4% respectively. During the first week under review the 23rd experienced no gun violence but did report a significant increase of +450% in identity fraud cases to go along with slight hikes in misdemeanor assaults and housing crimes. The following week the 23rd experienced 1 shooting and increases in felony assaults, petit larcenies and housing authority crime.
The Upper West Side (UWS) is covered by the 20th and the 24th Precincts. The 20th recorded a dip of –57% in week one ending November 22nd and a +7% hike in week two. No gun violence was reported in either week and all categories were down except for slight upticks in misdemeanor assaults and petit larcenies during the week ending November 29th.
The 24th Precinct recorded a –29% drop over the two-week period with no gun violence. Despite the –29% decline in overall crime, the 24th did record increases in commercial burglaries +400%, petit larcenies +38% and minor assaults +75%.
Moving into the Bronx near Yankee Stadium, the 44th Precinct recorded the tale of two crime weeks with a +20% hike in week one and a –14% decline the following week. Violent crime erupted with 4 shootings causing injuries to 6 individuals during the two-week span. During the first week burglaries rose +250%, felony assaults jumped +100% and grand and petit larcenies rose +23% combined. The following week rapes, felony assaults and burglaries declined but 7 street robberies and 63 grand and petit larcenies were reported.
The southern portion of Corona Queens is patrolled by the 110th Police Precinct. The 110th recorded a –35% drop in week one and a –3% decline the following week with no gun violence in either week. This command was down in all major crime categories apart from increases in felony assaults +117% and misdemeanor assaults +23% in week two.
The 112th Precinct in Forest Hills recorded an –18% decline in week one and a +25% jump the following week with no gun violence reported in either week. Spikes in felony assaults, petit larcenies and stolen autos were responsible for the +25% jump in the second week.
Borough Violence Report:
The Bronx remains violence-ridden with 13 shootings in the last 14 days injuring 15 people and killing 3. This borough shares the lead with Brooklyn North for most murders with 99 for the year. Rapes and felony assaults fell slightly but street robberies remained steady with 142 incidents reported.
Brooklyn South recorded a bloody two weeks with 1 homicide and 12 acts of gunfire which is +500% higher than this period in 2019. Street robberies and felony assaults rose significantly, and the borough recorded 4 rapes.
Brooklyn North borough had two weeks of declining overall crime, however 14 shootings erupted, injuring 21 people. Year-to-date the borough has recorded 99 homicides, equal with the Bronx.
Manhattan South reported 2 shootings with 1 homicide over the last 14 days. Street robberies climbed +20%, felony assaults jumped +57% and rapes fell by –75%.
Manhattan North recorded 2 homicides and 4 acts of gunfire as the northern part of Manhattan reached its 160th shooting incident for the year. Rapes slightly rose but felony assaults and street robberies dipped by –50% each.
Queens North crime rates rose +2% each week with no gun violence reported. Rapes tumbled while felony assaults remained steady compared to 2019’s figures at this time. Street robberies picked up with 26 new complaints reported over the last 14 days.
Queens South recorded a slight dip in overall crime by –8% during this two-week stretch. Despite the dip, the borough had 3 shootings resulting in 2 murders. Street robberies also jumped +56% and 5 rapes were recorded.
Staten Island recorded 3 shootings in the last 14 days bringing its annual tally to 39 which is +105% higher than 2019’s data. In other crime categories Staten Island reduced crime –19% with only a slight uptick in street robberies.
Brosnan Watch List:
Midtown South Precinct (MTS) remains on our watch list as a result of its excessive number of commercial burglaries and growing amounts of street robberies and felony assaults. During the recent two-week period MTS continues to be plagued by commercial burglaries as they rose by +50% each week, street robberies jumped +167% and felony assaults leveled off in the second week.
The 114th Precinct in Astoria has experienced soaring crime rates over the past six months and made it onto our watch list. During the first seven days the 114th Precinct, for the first time in months, achieved a zero-rate increase in overall crime compared to 2019’s figures. Even though the overall rate was flat, the command recorded increases in felony assaults +33%, burglaries +50%, stolen vehicles +150% and petit larcenies +286% when compared to 2019’s data during this seven-day cycle. The following seven days yielded an increase of +19% in overall crime versus the same period in 2019. Despite the +19% uptick, there was significant improvement with no gun violence and reduced figures in most categories except for street robberies and petit larcenies.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
Gun violence and serious crimes continue to occur in New York City even while COVID-19 forces social distance and government leaders discourage people from engaging. Ironically, despite rising crime figures, City and State leaders continue to pursue further criminal justice reforms leaving the average law-abiding taxpayer to scratch their head and wonder. A story published on December 2nd by the media outlet “The City” (www.thecity.nyc) sought to exploit New York’s flawed “no bail-no jail” policy by focusing on an individual who was arrested 160 times yet remains at large, free from consequences, to victimize even more. As 2020 nears its end, crime is forecast to continue its upward trend into the new year unless, the 2021 Legislative Session in Albany yields consequences again for criminal behavior.
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