Besides world-class security guards, Intelligence as a Service is one of the many Security Services that we offer our clients at Brosnan Risk Consultants. The Bi-Weekly Brosnan NYC Crime Brief is a general version of the type of Intelligence as Service report that we offer to our clients throughout the United States and is part of the full Security Services offerings available through Brosnan Risk Consultants. This crime brief covers the two-week period in New York City from November 30th through December 13th, 2020.
The brief compares 2020 year-to-date statistics with data collected from 2019 and compares the current two weeks of figures in the areas of New York City specific to the business interests of BRC.
Additionally, the brief includes analysis of all data by BRC subject matter experts from the NYPD’s Detectives’ Endowment Association, Inc., the FBI and the CIA. The source of the data examined is the NYPD’s CompStat Unit.
As of December 13th, 2020, year-to-date figures indicate that overall crime in the seven major crime categories has declined by –0.58% across the five boroughs when compared to 2019. The crime story for 2020 has been and continues to be about out-of-control gun violence in New York City. Over the last two weeks New Yorkers have endured 59 shootings, injuring 69 people and killing 6. As the year winds down, 432 New Yorkers have been murdered which is +39% higher than the 2019 homicide count. Victims of gunfire tallied 1,799 this year versus only 885 from 2019 and shooting incidents have now topped 1,469 versus 743 in 2019. The last seven days yielded higher than average violence with 35 shootings compared to only 8 during the same seven day stretch in 2019 for an increase of +338%. Other crime data reveals that due to the pandemic, opportunistic criminals have committed almost 15,000 commercial and residential burglaries and stolen more than 8,600 autos which represents increases of +42% and +68% respectively for 2020. COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution throughout New York City poses its own challenges and security concerns regarding COVID-19 Vaccination Centers will remain an ongoing issue as we go into 2021.
Analysis of Crime Statistics Impact to Brosnan's Clients
Data generated over the last two weeks was examined and indicates that below 59th Street in Manhattan crime declined by –37% compared with the same two-week stretch in 2019. Despite the decline, the southern portion of Manhattan recorded three shootings. During the week from November 30th through December 6th, rapes fell but robberies were up +77%, felony assaults climbed +20%, commercial burglaries increased +50% and stolen vehicles rose by +200%. The following week Manhattan South experienced a drop in grand larcenies, but robberies, commercial burglaries, stolen cars and housing crime had significant increases.
Focusing on a few pertinent commands in Manhattan South, the 1st Precinct, which covers SOHO, Tri-Beca and the Financial District recorded a +4% crime rate increase in week one followed by a zero-rate increase in week two. Worth noting over the two-week stretch were significant hikes in street robberies and commercial burglaries. The 1st also reported 1 shooting incident.
The 10th Precinct covering the west side north of the Chelsea section recorded a crime decline of –26% combined over the two weeks under review. No acts of gun violence were reported and the command had reductions in all categories except commercial burglaries which jumped +150% over the same fourteen days in 2019.
Midtown Precinct North (MTN) reported that its crime rate dropped by –33% and –35% respectively over the two-week period compared to 2019’s figures. MTN reported no gun violence and rapes, grand larcenies and transit crime fell however, street robberies rose +350%, felony assaults jumped +425% and commercial burglaries increased +283%.
Moving north of 59th Street, Manhattan North reduced crime by a total of –16% over the two-week period. Despite the decline, the northern part of Manhattan experienced gun violence with 1 murder, 8 shootings and 1 hate crime which occurred in the 24th Precinct. Year-to-date, Manhattan North has recorded 58 homicides and 168 acts of gunfire. In the last fourteen days borough data shows reduced figures in rapes, robberies and felony assaults however, commercial burglaries and stolen cars continue to increase.
In the Hamilton Heights section of Harlem, the 30th Police Precinct spiked +30% in week one and declined by -6% the following week. No gun violence was reported in either week, but felony assaults, commercial burglaries and grand larceny cases jumped significantly causing the week one rate increase.
Data relating to the Upper East Side (UES) was examined from the 19th and 23rd Precincts. During the two-week snapshot crime declined by –12% compared to 2019. No acts of gun fire were reported in either week however, robberies and larcenies increased consistent with the holiday season in this command.
The 23rd Precinct experienced conflicting weeks recording a –15% decline in week one and a +67% jump the following week. Driving the crime spike in week two were significant increases in street robberies +150%, identity fraud cases +200%, felony assaults +17% and commercial burglaries +33%. No gun violence reported in either week.
The Upper West Side (UWS) is covered by the 20th and the 24th Precincts. The 20th reduced crime by –18% and –20% respectively during the two-week lookback. The 20th command recorded 1 shooting incident but reductions in all other categories except commercial burglaries.
The 24th Precinct reduced crime in the northern section of the UWS by –32% in week one and an additional –43.5% the following week compared with the same two-week period in 2019. No gun violence occurred, however the 24th recorded a hate crime in week two. Slight upticks in commercial burglaries and felony assaults were reported while all other crime categories fell.
Moving north east into the Bronx, the 44th Precinct near Yankee Stadium recorded crime hikes in both weeks totaling +33%. During the week ending December 6th the 44th Precinct reported one homicide caused by gunfire. This command now has 14 murders for the year which is +75% higher than its 2019 figure. No gun violence occurred the following week however, increases in street robberies +50%, felony assaults +78%, misdemeanor assaults +40% and stolen autos + 50% were recorded.
In Queens the 110th Precinct, covering southern Corona, enjoyed reduced crime in both weeks by –43% and –38% with no gun violence. The 110th recorded falling figures in all categories except for a minor hike in street robberies.
The 112th command, covering Forest Hills, experienced the tale-of-two-weeks with crime being flat in week one compared to the same seven days in 2019 followed by a +70% jump the next week. Gun violence was nonexistent however the spike in week two was driven by commercial burglaries +400%, street robberies +100% and petit larcenies +100%.
Brosnan Security Watch List:
The 114th Precinct in Queens and the Midtown Precinct South (MTS) in Manhattan remain on our watch list of precincts that are experiencing rising crime and may be of interest to our client base.
Over the last two weeks the 114th command has gained some control reducing crime by –7% and –25% respectively. No gun violence was reported during the period under review however, this command experienced a significant increase in commercial burglaries by +200% in week one and +600% the following. Petit larcenies jumped +160% combined over the two-week lookback.
Midtown Precinct South (MTS) recorded reductions of –29% in week one and –35% the following week. Despite the –29% drop the first week street robberies were up +300%, commercial burglaries climbed another 67% and one shooting was reported. During week two MTS reduced commercial burglaries by –25% and no gun violence was reported.
Borough Violence Report:
The borough of the Bronx continues to struggle with gunfire and other crimes of violence. During the recent two weeks, 13 shootings erupted striking 14 victims causing one homicide. The borough’s crime rate rose +39% over the two-week lookback as street robberies, felony assaults and rapes made their mark. Year-to-date, the Bronx has produced 371 shootings compared with 212 incidents in 2019 for a +75% increase.
Brooklyn South had its share of gunfire recording 9 shootings causing 2 homicides and injuring 10 people. During the first week ending December 6th, Brooklyn South had 4 rapes reported however robberies, felony assaults and misdemeanor assaults fell. The following week rapes, felony assaults and other sex crimes dramatically increased when compared to the same week in 2019.
In Brooklyn North 15 shootings erupted over the two-week period collecting 17 victims and 1 murder. Street robberies, felony assaults and misdemeanor assaults dropped during week one but 68 new felony assault cases were filed over the remaining seven days.
Manhattan South uncharacteristically recorded 3 shootings during the two-week stretch. Street robberies rose +110% and felony assaults realized a 20% uptick over fourteen days.
Manhattan North’s violent tendencies continued over the two-week stretch documenting 8 acts of gunfire causing 1 murder and injuring 9 victims. The borough recorded significant reductions in rapes, robberies, felony assaults and minor assaults when compared to the same two weeks in 2019.
Queens South reported 1 murder and 9 shooting incidents during the recent two weeks. During week one robberies, rapes and felony assaults dipped. The following week robberies declined again by -22% however, 14 sex crimes were reported including 1 rape.
In Queens North 2 shootings erupted during the first seven days and street robberies jumped +17%. Rapes, felony assaults and minor assaults fell compared to 2019 figures. During the second week no gun violence was reported and all other violent crime categories were down except street robberies which tallied +11% more than 2019’s data.
Staten Island crime figures skyrocketed in both weeks with spikes of +39% and +48% respectively. No gun violence was reported but rapes and robberies drove the increases.
Crime Trends and Forecasts
As the holidays approach and the year 2020 comes to an end, the City of New York remains in the grips of the pandemic, an increasing homeless population and rising crime and violence. Oddly enough, with the distribution of the vaccine now in progress, we have a better chance of defeating COVID-19 before we gain control of crime and homelessness. The results of the recent election cycle in our State Capitol-Albany yielded a “super-majority” of Progressive-Democrats in the New York State Senate, those of whom have promised to introduce additional criminal-justice reform bills in the 2021 legislative session; therefore, our crime forecast is not expected to improve. City-Hall intelligence indicates New York City is facing, at least, a $9 Billion dollar budget deficit threatening layoffs and reduced services if a bail-out is not forthcoming from Washington DC, which will only produce higher crime and more homeless.
Security Checklist for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Centers
As the new COVID-19 vaccines are distributed throughout the United States this holiday season - especially in light of the recent uptick in COVID-19 infections - the possibility of civil unrest at COVID-19 Vaccination Centers is becoming apparent. COVID-19 Vaccination Center Security Planning is quickly becoming a priority throughout the nation. Our security experts have put together a Security Checklist for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Centers based on our years of experience in logistical, supply chain and retail security planning and we are offering it a free download.
All indicators suggest that there are ample reasons to plan for security issues around COVID testing and vaccination sites. show that it is not if, but when the next violent protest will erupt. A little planning and preparation go a long way. Click the link below to download your copy of the Security Checklist for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Centers.
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